Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 14

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes (Quilmes)


	Quilmes		Tristán Suárez

	1	X	2
	2.57	2.65	3.2	Watch
	2.2	2.8	3.5
	2.22	2.72	3.65	Watch
	2.56	2.74	3.49
	2.4	2.55	3.92	Watch
	2.4	2.6	3.4
	2.61	2.69	3.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.29)	2.68 ↓ (2.69)	3.48 ↓ (3.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Quilmes
38.4%

Draw
34.8%

Tristán Suárez
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

34.7%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

33.1%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Quilmes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Tristán Suárez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Quilmes than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tristán Suárez than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Quilmes - Tristán Suárez Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Tristán Suárez will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Canadell J. (G) 4. Ortega A. 2. Kippes A. 6. Rasso I. 3. Ortega T. 8. Fernandez M. 5. Yangali J. 10. Batista A. 11. Vera U. 7. Lavezzi A. 9. Vazquez G.	1. Bigo J. (G) 7. Olguin M. 2. Aguilar B. 6. Baldi A. 3. Fernandez N. 4. Guillen M. 5. Del Priore N. 8. Sanchez N. 10. Colli K. 9. Alvarez M. 11. Almada A.
Substitutes
14. Bindella A. 19. Dominguez A. 12. Glellel E. (G) 18. Luna R. 17. Mejias T. 13. Recalde L. 20. Spetale A. 15. Vallejos M.	20. Beron J. 18. Berrondo A. 13. Guzman M. 14. Henry N. 12. Mendive J. (G) 15. Molina A. 17. Sanchez A. 16. Trasante J. 19. Veliez A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Colli K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Almada A. ↓, Veliez A. ↑,
58', Batista A. ↓, Luna R. ↑,
58', Vera U. ↓, Mejias T. ↑,
61', Colli K. ↓, Molina A. ↑,
61', Guillen M. ↓, Berrondo A. ↑,
66', Vazquez G. ↓, Dominguez A. ↑,
67', Sanchez N. ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
71', Kippes A. 🟨,
72', Olguin M. ↓, Guzman M. ↑,
76', Ortega A. ↓, Spetale A. ↑,
80', Fernandez N. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Quilmes won 2.

Quilmes is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Tristán Suárez's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Quilmes may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Quilmes might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Quilmes won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Quilmes won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Tristán Suárez - the odds 3.81 are the expected chance of winning is 24.51%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Quilmes AC
Argentinian Primera Nacional
10.05.26	Güemes - Quilmes	2:1 ✺
04.05.26	Quilmes - Chacarita Juniors	0:0 ✺
25.04.26	San Martín de San Juan - Quilmes	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Quilmes - Nueva Chicago	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Temperley - Quilmes	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LTLTT
- Deportivo Tristán Suárez
Argentinian Primera Nacional
09.05.26	Tristán Suárez - Ferrocarril Midland	1:3 ✺
03.05.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Tristán Suárez	3:1 ✺
26.04.26	Tristán Suárez - Gimnasia y Tiro	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	San Martín de Tucumán - Tristán Suárez	0:0 ✺
13.04.26	Tristán Suárez - Atlético de Rafaela	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
04.10.25	Quilmes - Tristán Suárez	0:1
31.05.25	Tristán Suárez - Quilmes	0:0
01.09.24	Quilmes - Tristán Suárez	0:1
14.04.24	Tristán Suárez - Quilmes	1:3
29.09.23	Quilmes - Tristán Suárez	5:1
20.05.23	Tristán Suárez - Quilmes	0:0
28.03.22	Tristán Suárez - Quilmes	2:2

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