Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 15 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Referee: Cabero J. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, DSPORTS+ Plus
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, DSPORTS+ Plus, Inter


	Racing Montevideo		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	5	3.4	1.75	Watch
	5	3.6	1.68
	4.5	3.4	1.8	Watch
	5.15	3.59	1.82
	4.65	3.38	1.86	Watch
	5	3.4	1.67	Watch
	4.71	3.42	1.83	Watch
	4.5	3.4	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.81 ↑ (4.53)	3.45 ↓ (3.52)	1.78 ↓ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Racing Montevideo
19.6%

Draw
27.3%

Corinthians
53.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.7%

26.6%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.5%

26.3%

53.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Racing Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Racing Montevideo than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.3%	0%	95.7%

Racing Montevideo - Corinthians Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Racing (2.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Racing (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Racing (3.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Corinthians (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Corinthians (2.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Corinthians will win (22 of 22 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Corinthians will win (15 of 15 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Racing (votes: 3 - 15%). Corinthians (votes: 17 - 85%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Amade L. (G) 4. Cotugno G. 3. Bueno G. 19. Pinela M. 15. Caceres M. 6. Espinosa Dovat T. N. 10. Rodriguez L. (C) 17. Ferreira M. 77. Tomatis B. 21. Fonseca M. 22. Severo A.	1. Hugo Souza (G) 33. Leo Mana 5. Andre Ramalho 47. Joao Pedro 21. Matheus Bidu 35. Charles Rigon 37. Ryan 80. Alex Santana 11. Angel Romero 22. Hernandez H. 43. Talles Magno
Substitutes
26. Bosca J. 16. Da Silva E. 29. De Lima E. 42. Hernandez C. 12. Machado F. (G) 37. Oyarzo Y. 34. Pereira A. 18. Ramirez S. 30. Scarone A. 33. Sosa S. 11. Viudez P.	26. Angileri F. 27. Breno Bidon 25. Caca 19. Carrillo A. 46. Hugo 77. Igor Coronado 31. Kayke 70. Martinez J. 32. Matheus Donelli (G) 2. Matheuzinho 7. Maycon 9. Yuri Alberto
Coaches
Chambian C.	Dorival Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Leo Mana 🟨,
43', Charles Rigon 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Hernandez H. ↓, Igor Coronado ↑,
46', Charles Rigon ↓, Carrillo A. ↑,
46', Angel Romero ↓, Yuri Alberto ↑,
52', Bueno G. 🟨,
59', Fonseca M. ↓, Sosa S. ↑,
59', Tomatis B. ↓, Da Silva E. ↑,
71', Severo A. 🟨,
73', Severo A. ↓, Bosca J. ↑,
74', 0 - 1, Matheus Bidu ⚽,
82', Alex Santana ↓, Maycon ↑,
82', Caceres M. ↓, Scarone A. ↑,
82', Pinela M. ↓, De Lima E. ↑,
88', Ryan ↓, Martinez J. ↑,

Preview

Recent form of Racing has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Corinthians has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Racing may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Corinthians is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Racing won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.3:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Racing won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Montevideo
Copa Sudamericana
08.05.25	Racing Montevideo - Huracán Buenos Aires	1:3 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.25	Danubio - Racing Montevideo	0:0 ✺
28.04.25	Racing Montevideo - Cerro Largo	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.04.25	Corinthians - Racing Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.04.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Racing Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LTTLL
- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Mirassol - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.25	Corinthians - América de Cali	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.25	Corinthians - Internacional RS	4:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
30.04.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.04.25	Flamengo - Corinthians	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
24.04.25	Corinthians - Racing Montevideo	1:0
28.05.24	Corinthians - Racing Montevideo	3:0
02.04.24	Racing Montevideo - Corinthians	1:1

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