Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Osvaldo Roberto (Montevideo)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Racing Montevideo		Montevideo City Torque

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.2	4.75	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.3
	1.72	3.3	4.75
	1.77	3.67	5.29
	1.68	3.66	5.09	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.5
	1.78	3.36	4.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (2.59)	3.41 ↑ (3.14)	4.63 ↑ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Racing Montevideo
52.6%

Draw
27.3%

Montevideo City Torque
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

29.7%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

30.1%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Racing Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Racing Montevideo's performance.

Montevideo City Torque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Montevideo City Torque might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Racing Montevideo than the current prediction. (-17%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Racing Montevideo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montevideo City Torque than the current prediction. (+14.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Montevideo City Torque could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Racing Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Racing will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Racing (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Racing (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Varese F. (G) 29. Gonzalez F. 14. De Los Santos E. 3. Brazionis 13. Alvarez F. 17. Ferreira M. 5. Bosca J. 8. Cairus F. 39. Vazquez A. 18. Habib T. 33. Da Silva S.	13. Rodriguez G. (G) 17. Aguero E. 3. Silva K. 27. Taran J. 21. Perez N. 30. Quintana J. 14. Kociubinski B. 32. Caceres S. 19. Guzman D. 11. Da Silva N. 29. Martinez F.
Substitutes
40. Atum A. 10. Da Silva E. 19. Dudok R. 27. Loprete L. 1. Machado F. (G) 37. Oyarzo Y. 23. Sosa N. 11. Suarez F. 77. Tomatis B. 7. Varela J.	23. Dure L. 24. Kagelmacher G. 18. Lecchini R. 20. Montes G. 10. Obregon E. 9. Rodriguez S. 2. Romero F. 8. Siles P. 26. Silvera F. 1. Torgnascioli F. (G)
Coaches
Chambian C.	Mendez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 1 - 0, Ferreira M. ⚽,
20', 1 - 1, Da Silva N. ⚽,
30', Vazquez A. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Da Silva S. ↓, Oyarzo Y. ↑,
46', Martinez F. ↓, Lecchini R. ↑,
63', Habib T. 🟨,
65', Caceres S. ↓, Silvera F. ↑,
65', Aguero E. ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
66', Habib T. ↓, Sosa N. ↑,
72', Gonzalez F. ↓, Da Silva E. ↑,
72', Perez N. 🟨,
76', Guzman D. 🟥,
80', Da Silva N. ↓, Obregon E. ↑,
81', Quintana J. ↓, Siles P. ↑,
81', Bosca J. ↓, Varela J. ↑,
87', Taran J. 🟨,
90+6', Rodriguez S. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs: ) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Racing won 3.

Racing has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Montevideo City has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Montevideo City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Racing could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Racing won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Racing won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Montevideo City	9	6	1	2	19:10	9	19
9	Racing Montevideo	9	3	3	3	9:8	1	12

Last Results with these Odds

Racing Montevideo - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 36.05%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.04.26	Cerro Largo - Racing Montevideo	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Racing Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Racing Montevideo	1:2 ✺
04.04.26	Racing Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 WTWWW
- Montevideo City Torque
Copa Sudamericana
29.04.26	Deportivo Riestra - Montevideo City Torque	2:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.04.26	Montevideo City Torque - Boston River	4:1 ✺
19.04.26	Cerro - Montevideo City Torque	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	Palestino - Montevideo City Torque	0:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.04.26	Montevideo City Torque - Albion Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
24.08.25	Montevideo City Torque - Racing Montevideo	4:0
29.06.25	Racing Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	1:1
21.02.25	Racing Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	3:1
14.11.23	Racing Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	1:0
08.04.23	Montevideo City Torque - Racing Montevideo	0:2
11.08.18	Racing Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	0:1
25.02.18	Montevideo City Torque - Racing Montevideo	2:2

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