Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 14 May 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Referee: Vargas G. (Bol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 2


	Racing Montevideo		Nacional Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.8	5.75	Watch
	1.62	3.7	5.5
	1.6	3.75	5.5	Watch
	1.6	3.87	6.2
	1.6	3.88	5.79
	1.53	3.7	5.5	Watch
	1.63	3.75	5.4	Watch
	1.59	3.7	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.78)	3.77 ↑ (3.35)	5.66 ↑ (4.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Racing Montevideo
58.6%

Draw
24.8%

Nacional Asuncion
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.8%

27.4%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

26.8%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Racing Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Racing Montevideo's performance.

Nacional Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Racing Montevideo than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Racing Montevideo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	9.1%	18.2%

Racing Montevideo - Nacional Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Racing will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Racing: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Odriozola R. (G) 14. De Los Santos E. 2. Magallanes H. 3. Bueno G. 5. Monzon L. 17. Ferreira M. 20. Urretaviscaya J. 21. Rodriguez L. 7. Varela J. (C) 9. Nandin D. 27. Veron T.	1. Silva A. (C) 4. Alfaro J. L. 5. Ojeda S. 14. Nunez C. 25. Rivas L. 11. Caballero G. 24. Santacruz Rodas J. F. 6. Alfaro J. 21. Blas Caceres 9. Bailone I. 23. Duarte D.
Substitutes
19. Airala C. 18. Alaniz A. 1. Bacchia R. (G) 32. Espinosa Dovat T. N. 8. Gorocito L. 29. Hernandez A. 77. Mederos S. 52. Mendez E. 34. Pereira A. 6. Quinonez O. 10. Rivero J. 22. Severo A.	38. Arevalo R. 36. Benegas I. 17. Blasi B. 37. Campss J. 30. Galarza L. (G) 33. Gaona Lugo O. 20. Gomez A. 19. Gonzalez F. 16. Gonzalez M. 7. Orzusa E. 29. Vargas S. 8. Velazco F.
Coaches
Espinel E.	Bernay V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Varela J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Nunez C. ↓, Blasi B. ↑,
53', 0 - 1, Bailone I. (Pen),
54', 1 - 1, Nandin D. ⚽, Varela J. (A),
59', De Los Santos E. ↓, Alaniz A. ↑,
64', 2 - 1, Bueno G. ⚽, Urretaviscaya J. (A),
70', Blas Caceres ↓, Gomez A. ↑,
76', Rodriguez L. ↓, Pereira A. ↑,
77', Monzon L. ↓, Mendez E. ↑,
81', Caballero G. ↓, Gaona Lugo O. ↑,
81', Duarte D. ↓, Arevalo R. ↑,
87', Alfaro J. ↓, Velazco F. ↑,
90', Nandin D. ↓, Rivero J. ↑,
90+1', Urretaviscaya J. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,
90+4', Gaona Lugo O. 🟨,
90+5', Santacruz Rodas J. F. 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches Racing is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Nacional Asuncion is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Racing is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Racing won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.05.24	Racing Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.24	Racing Montevideo - Argentinos Juniors	2:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.24	Nacional Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	4:2 ✺
29.04.24	Racing Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.04.24	Nacional Asuncion - Racing Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LWLWT
- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
11.05.24	Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Asuncion	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.24	Nacional Asuncion - Corinthians	0:2 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
03.05.24	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	0:1 ✺
28.04.24	Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.04.24	Nacional Asuncion - Racing Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
25.04.24	Nacional Asuncion - Racing Montevideo	2:2

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