Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 25 April 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Defensores del Chaco (Asunción)

Referee: Alveal F. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Brazil	ESPN 4


	Nacional Asuncion		Racing Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.2	3.4	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.9
	2.15	3.25	3.4	Watch
	2.68	3.15	2.96
	2.54	3.15	2.96
	2.38	3.1	2.88	Watch
	2.5	3.18	2.82	Watch
	2.3	3.05	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (1.92)	3.15 ↓ (3.38)	3.06 ↓ (3.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Asuncion
39.3%

Draw
29.9%

Racing Montevideo
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

27.5%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.7%

28.2%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nacional Asuncion's form might have worsened.

Racing Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Racing Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nacional Asuncion, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Racing Montevideo than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Racing Montevideo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	50%	33.3%

Nacional Asuncion - Racing Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Racing will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva A. (C) 4. Alfaro J. L. 17. Blasi B. 43. Canete Torres A. D. 25. Rivas L. 23. Duarte D. 13. Meza L. 6. Alfaro J. 20. Gomez A. 11. Caballero G. 9. Bailone I.	1. Bacchia R. (G) 34. Pereira A. 4. Cotugno G. 2. Magallanes H. 5. Monzon L. (C) 17. Ferreira M. 7. Varela J. 21. Rodriguez L. 20. Urretaviscaya J. 27. Veron T. 9. Nandin D.
Substitutes
31. Bazan N. 36. Benegas I. 21. Blas Caceres 10. Caballero Fleytas T. I. 28. Gonzalez A. 16. Gonzalez M. 14. Nunez C. 37. Nunez J. 5. Ojeda S. 35. Peralta F. (G) 24. Santacruz Rodas J. F. 8. Velazco F.	19. Airala C. 18. Alaniz A. 3. Bueno G. 14. De Los Santos E. 32. Espinosa Dovat T. N. 29. Hernandez A. 77. Mederos S. 52. Mendez E. 25. Odriozola R. (G) 10. Rivero J. 22. Severo A. 24. Teliz R.
Coaches
Bernay V.	Espinel E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
36', 1 - 0, Caballero G. ⚽, Duarte D. (A),
39', 1 - 1, Veron T. ⚽, Ferreira M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Alfaro J. ↓, Blas Caceres ↑,
64', Gomez A. ↓, Bazan N. ↑,
65', Meza L. ↓, Santacruz Rodas J. F. ↑,
69', 2 - 1, Santacruz Rodas J. F. ⚽, Blas Caceres (A),
76', Pereira A. ↓, Alaniz A. ↑,
77', Rodriguez L. ↓, Mederos S. ↑,
77', Veron T. ↓, Rivero J. ↑,
77', Bailone I. ↓, Nunez J. ↑,
78', 2 - 2, Rivero J. ⚽, Alaniz A. (A),
82', Canete Torres A. D. ↓, Nunez C. ↑,
85', Urretaviscaya J. ↓, Mendez E. ↑,
90+1', Nandin D. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Nacional Asuncion is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Racing is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Racing could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Nacional Asuncion will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
21.04.24	Nacional Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1 ✺
17.04.24	Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:1 ✺
13.04.24	General Caballero JLM - Nacional Asuncion	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.04.24	Corinthians - Nacional Asuncion	4:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
05.04.24	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LTWLT
- Racing Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.04.24	Racing Montevideo - Cerro	1:1 ✺
14.04.24	Rampla Juniors - Racing Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.04.24	Argentinos Juniors - Racing Montevideo	0:3 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.04.24	Racing Montevideo - Miramar Misiones	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
02.04.24	Racing Montevideo - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24 TWWTT

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