Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Defensores del Chaco (Asunción)

Referee: Arteaga A. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Brazil	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV2


	Nacional Asuncion		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.75	1.7	Watch
	5	3.6	1.68
	5	3.6	1.7
	5.34	3.67	1.71
	5.34	3.67	1.68
	5	3.6	1.6	Watch
	5.03	3.7	1.68	Watch
	5.4	3.6	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.17 ↑ (3.78)	3.65 ↑ (3.35)	1.67 ↓ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Asuncion
18.1%

Draw
25.7%

Corinthians
56.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.7%

27.9%

47.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.9%

27%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nacional Asuncion's form might have worsened.

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Corinthians's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nacional Asuncion, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Corinthians, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	22.2%	66.7%

Nacional Asuncion - Corinthians Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Corinthians will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Corinthians: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva A. (G) 4. Alfaro J. L. 14. Nunez C. 17. Blasi B. 25. Rivas L. 23. Duarte D. 13. Meza L. 6. Alfaro J. 21. Blas Caceres 20. Gomez A. 11. Caballero G.	22. Carlos Miguel (G) 23. Fagner 3. Torres F. 25. Caca 46. Hugo 18. Paulinho 27. Breno Bidon 19. Gustavo Mosquito 26. Guilherme Biro 36. Wesley 11. Angel Romero
Substitutes
15. Avalos Gimenez F. A. 9. Bailone I. 10. Caballero Fleytas T. I. 37. Campss J. 43. Canete Torres A. D. 30. Galarza L. (G) 16. Gonzalez M. 5. Ojeda S. 7. Orzusa E. 24. Santacruz Rodas J. F. 29. Vargas S. 8. Velazco F.	4. Caetano 12. Cassio (G) 17. Giovane 13. Gustavo Henrique 77. Igor Coronado 35. Leo Mana 21. Matheus Bidu 32. Matheus Donelli (G) 2. Matheus Franca 20. Pedro Raul 37. Ryan 9. Yuri Alberto
Coaches
Bernay V.	Toni Oliveira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Meza L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Nunez C. 🟨,
57', Wesley 🟨,
59', Gustavo Mosquito ↓, Yuri Alberto ↑,
59', Guilherme Biro ↓, Matheus Franca ↑,
62', Blas Caceres 🟨,
75', 0 - 1, Yuri Alberto ⚽, Angel Romero (A),
76', Blas Caceres ↓, Santacruz Rodas J. F. ↑,
76', Meza L. ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
82', Caballero G. ↓, Bailone I. ↑,
84', Wesley ↓, Gustavo Henrique ↑,
89', Alfaro J. ↓, Caballero Fleytas T. I. ↑,
90+5', Caballero Fleytas T. I. 🟥,
90+7', 0 - 2, Matheus Franca ⚽, Hugo (A),
90+8', Matheus Franca ↓, Giovane ↑,

Preview

Nacional Asuncion is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Corinthians is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Nacional Asuncion could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Nacional Asuncion have a series of home games.

In this match Corinthians is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Nacional Asuncion won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
03.05.24	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	0:1 ✺
28.04.24	Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.04.24	Nacional Asuncion - Racing Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
21.04.24	Nacional Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1 ✺
17.04.24	Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLTLT
- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.24	Corinthians - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.24	América RN - Corinthians	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.04.24	Corinthians - Fluminense	3:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.24	Argentinos Juniors - Corinthians	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Corinthians	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
09.04.24	Corinthians - Nacional Asuncion	4:0

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