Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 33

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów (Radom)

Referee: Arys K. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	FOX Sports 2
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 5, Arena Sport 8
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Radomiak Radom		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.7	1.83	Watch
	3.4	3.7	1.92	Watch
	3.73	3.9	1.97
	3.73	3.75	1.93	Watch
	3.5	3.5	1.91
	3.62	3.72	1.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.6 ↑ (3.16)	3.71 ↓ (3.8)	1.91 ↓ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Radomiak Radom
25.9%

Draw
25.1%

Lech Poznań
48.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

24.4%

46.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

24.8%

47%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Radomiak Radom has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Radomiak Radom than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	9.1%	81.8%

Radomiak Radom - Lech Poznań Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lech Poznań will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Majchrowicz F. (G) 24. Zie Ouattara 14. Kingue S. 26. Dieguez A. 13. Grzesik J. 77. Donis C. 21. Balde E. 6. Baro R. 82. Luquinhas 7. Lopes V. 9. Leandro (C)	41. Mrozek B. (G) 2. Pereira J. 72. Skrzypczak M. 27. Monka W. 15. Gurgul M. 43. Kozubal A. 99. Rodriguez P. 10. Walemark P. 77. Palma L. 14. Bengtsson L. 9. Ishak M. (C)
Substitutes
10. Alves R. 5. Blasco J. 2. Camara I. 16. Cichocki M. 75. Jerke M. (G) 20. Joao Pedro 28. Kaput M. 44. Koptas W. (G) 33. Markiewicz O. 25. Maurides 19. Soumah S. 17. Zabicki A.	7. Agnero Y. 1. Andreev P. (G) 11. Hakans D. 88. Ismaheel T. 24. Jagiello F. 90. Janyszka H. 22. Murawski R. 6. Ouma T. 33. Pruchniewski M. (G)
Coaches
Baltazar B.	Frederiksen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
8', 1 - 0, Grzesik J. ⚽, Lopes V. (A),
12', Leandro ↓, Maurides ↑,
16', 1 - 1, Ishak M. ⚽, Palma L. (A),
24', 1 - 2, Palma L. ⚽, Bengtsson L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', Kozubal A. 🟨,
58', 1 - 3, Walemark P. ⚽, Ishak M. (A),
66', Lopes V. ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
66', Balde E. ↓, Soumah S. ↑,
66', Palma L. ↓, Jagiello F. ↑,
66', Walemark P. ↓, Hakans D. ↑,
69', Bengtsson L. 🟨,
78', Bengtsson L. ↓, Ismaheel T. ↑,
78', Rodriguez P. ↓, Murawski R. ↑,
83', Donis C. 🟨,
84', Ishak M. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
84', Baro R. ↓, Alves R. ↑,
85', Dieguez A. ↓, Zabicki A. ↑,
90+4', Alves R. 🟨,
90+4', Agnero Y. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

Lech is Qualified for Champions League (Qualification )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Radomiak won 0.

Radomiak has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lech is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lech may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Lech is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Radomiak: Tapsoba A. (Red Card) Wilson-Esbrand J. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Lech: Douglas A. (Ribs Injury) Gholizadeh A. (Knee Injury) Gumny R. (Yellow Cards) Lisman K. (Knee Injury) Moutinho J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Lech: Thordarson G. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Radomiak won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:17. (average 1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Radomiak won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:8. (average 1.6:1.6).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Lech Poznan: 47.5% Radomiak Radom: 0.83%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lech Poznan	9	7	1	1	21:8	13	22
15	Radomiak Radom	9	2	2	5	7:20	-13	8

Last Results with these Odds

Radomiak Radom - the odds 3.16 are the expected chance of winning is 29.38%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Lech Poznań - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 46.23%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Radomiak Radom
Polish Ekstraklasa
11.05.26	Cracovia - Radomiak Radom	0:0 ✺
04.05.26	Radomiak Radom - Lechia Gdańsk	3:1 ✺
26.04.26	Wisła Płock - Radomiak Radom	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Radomiak Radom - Widzew Łódź	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Radomiak Radom	0:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 TWWWW
- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
08.05.26	Lech Poznań - Arka Gdynia	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Motor Lublin - Lech Poznań	0:1 ✺
26.04.26	Lech Poznań - Legia Warsaw	4:0 ✺
18.04.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Lech Poznań - GKS Katowice	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
23.11.25	Lech Poznań - Radomiak Radom	4:1
27.04.25	Radomiak Radom - Lech Poznań	2:2
26.10.24	Lech Poznań - Radomiak Radom	2:1
16.12.23	Radomiak Radom - Lech Poznań	2:2
30.07.23	Lech Poznań - Radomiak Radom	2:0
24.04.23	Radomiak Radom - Lech Poznań	1:1
09.10.22	Lech Poznań - Radomiak Radom	1:0

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