Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: ArcelorMittal Park (Sosnowiec) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Martinez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Albania	18:45	SuperSport 3
Argentina	14:45	Disney+
Armenia	21:45	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	04:45	Stan Sport
Austria	18:45	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 7
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:45	Arena Sport 3
Bulgaria	19:45	Ring, Voyo
Canada	13:45	DAZN Canada
China	01:45	ZhiBo8
Croatia	18:45	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	19:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Denmark	18:45	Disney+
Finland	19:45	Viaplay
France	18:45	Canal+ Live 12
Germany	18:45	RTL+
Hong Kong	01:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	18:45	RTL+
Iceland	17:45	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
Indonesia	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Israel	19:45	Sport 4
Italy	18:45	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Uno
Laos	00:45	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	18:45	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	11:45	Disney+
Mongolia	01:45	Premier Sports 5
New Zealand	06:45	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	18:45	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	12:45	Disney+
Philippines	01:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	18:45	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	17:45	DAZN / App
Russia	20:45	Okko Sport
Serbia	18:45	Arena Sport 6
Singapore	01:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones 7
Sweden	18:45	Disney+
Thailand	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 10
United Kingdom	17:45	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 8
Uruguay	14:45	Disney+
Usa	13:45	Paramount+
Venezuela	13:45	Disney+
Vietnam	00:45	ON Plus, ON Sport, TV 360, VTVcab
International	17:45	VIX App


	Raków Częstochowa		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.4	2.7
	2.55	3.2	2.5
	2.62	3.25	2.62
	2.77	3.43	2.63
	2.64	3.35	2.71	Watch
	2.63	3.1	2.5
	2.69	3.42	2.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↑ (2.63)	3.31 ↓ (3.52)	2.61 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Raków Częstochowa
35.6%

Draw
28.4%

Fiorentina
36%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.1%

27%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

27.4%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Raków Częstochowa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
39.3%	25%	35.7%

Raków Częstochowa - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Raków will win (votes: 11 - 39.3%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 10 - 35.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Raków: 21.2% – 57.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Raków (votes: 1 - 50%). Fiorentina (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

TQ, OT - Fiorentina (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Fiorentina (2.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Fiorentina (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Raków (votes: 1 - 20%). Fiorentina (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
48. Zych O. (G) 7. Tudor F. (C) 25. Racovitan B. 4. Svarnas S. 19. Ameyaw M. 23. Struski K. 6. Repka O. 20. Silva J. C. 9. Makuch P. 10. Lopez I. 18. Brunes J.	53. Christensen O. (G) 2. Dodo 15. Comuzzo P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 65. Parisi F. 44. Fagioli N. 27. Ndour C. 17. Harrison J. 80. Fabbian G. 22. Fazzini J. 20. Kean M.
Substitutes
11. Adriano 24. Arsenic Z. 5. Bulat M. 31. Czeremski D. 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 35. Ilenic M. 44. Mircetic B. 2. Mosor A. 21. Napieraj J. 17. Rocha L. 1. Trelowski K. (G)	62. Balbo L. 63. Bonanno P. 61. Braschi R. 43. de Gea D. (G) 21. Gosens R. 10. Gudmundsson A. 23. Kospo E. 60. Kouadio E. 50. Leonardelli P. (G) 8. Mandragora R. 91. Piccoli R. 5. Pongracic M.
Coaches
Tomczyk L.	Vanoli P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Tudor F. ↓, Mosor A. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', 1 - 0, Struski K. ⚽, Lopez I. (A),
61', Fazzini J. ↓, Gosens R. ↑,
61', Kean M. ↓, Piccoli R. ↑,
69', 1 - 1, Ndour C. ⚽,
70', Lopez I. ↓, Diaby-Fadiga L. ↑,
72', Dodo 🟨,
79', Makuch P. ↓, Rocha L. ↑,
79', Struski K. ↓, Bulat M. ↑,
80', Silva J. C. ↓, Adriano ↑,
85', Ndour C. 🟨,
87', Ameyaw M. 🟨,
87', Brunes J. 🟨,
88', Dodo ↓, Pongracic M. ↑,
90', Tomczyk L. 🟨,
90+1', Fagioli N. ↓, Mandragora R. ↑,
90+1', Harrison J. ↓, Gudmundsson A. ↑,
90+5', Pongracic M. 🟨,
90+7', 1 - 2, Pongracic M. ⚽, Gudmundsson A. (A),

Preview

First leg result: 1-2. Second leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - ArcelorMittal Park.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Fiorentina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Raków has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Raków: Abraham O. (Inactive) Brusberg I. (Inactive) Dawidowicz P. (Inactive) Kochergin V. (Knee Injury) Otieno E. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Brescianini M. (Inactive) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Rugani D. (Inactive) Solomon M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Lezzerini L. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Raków won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Raków Częstochowa
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.03.26	Górnik Zabrze - Raków Częstochowa	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Fiorentina - Raków Częstochowa	2:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
08.03.26	Raków Częstochowa - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0 ✺
Polish Cup
05.03.26	Avia Świdnik - Raków Częstochowa	1:2 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.03.26	Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLWWL
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
16.03.26	Cremonese - Fiorentina	1:4 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Fiorentina - Raków Częstochowa	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
08.03.26	Fiorentina - Parma	0:0 ✺
02.03.26	Udinese - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.02.26	Fiorentina - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:4 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Fiorentina - Raków Częstochowa	2:1

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