What is the expert prediction for Raków Częstochowa vs Fiorentina?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Raków Częstochowa vs Fiorentina. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Raków Częstochowa vs Fiorentina Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, March 19, 2026)

Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday

Location: ArcelorMittal Park (Sosnowiec)

Referee: Martinez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 7
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 12
Germany	RTL+
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Uno
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	Disney+
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 7
Sweden	Disney+
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 10
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 8
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus, ON Sport, TV 360, VTVcab
World	VIX App


	Raków Częstochowa		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.4	2.7
	2.55	3.2	2.5
	2.62	3.25	2.62
	2.77	3.43	2.63
	2.64	3.35	2.71	Watch
	2.63	3.1	2.5
	2.69	3.42	2.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↑ (2.63)	3.31 ↓ (3.52)	2.61 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Raków Częstochowa
35.6%

Draw
28.4%

Fiorentina
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

27%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

27.6%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Raków Częstochowa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
39.3%	25%	35.7%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Raków will win (votes: 11 - 39.3%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 10 - 35.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Raków: 21.2% – 57.4%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Raków (votes: 1 - 50%). Fiorentina (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

TQ, OT - Fiorentina (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Fiorentina (2.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Fiorentina (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Raków (votes: 1 - 20%). Fiorentina (votes: 4 - 80%).

Score Prediction (the most likely result by bookmakers): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
48. Zych O. (G) 7. Tudor F. (C) 25. Racovitan B. 4. Svarnas S. 19. Ameyaw M. 23. Struski K. 6. Repka O. 20. Silva J. C. 9. Makuch P. 10. Lopez I. 18. Brunes J.	53. Christensen O. (G) 2. Dodo 15. Comuzzo P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 65. Parisi F. 44. Fagioli N. 27. Ndour C. 17. Harrison J. 80. Fabbian G. 22. Fazzini J. 20. Kean M.
Substitutes
11. Adriano 24. Arsenic Z. 5. Bulat M. 31. Czeremski D. 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 35. Ilenic M. 44. Mircetic B. 2. Mosor A. 21. Napieraj J. 17. Rocha L. 1. Trelowski K. (G)	62. Balbo L. 63. Bonanno P. 61. Braschi R. 43. de Gea D. (G) 21. Gosens R. 10. Gudmundsson A. 23. Kospo E. 60. Kouadio E. 50. Leonardelli P. (G) 8. Mandragora R. 91. Piccoli R. 5. Pongracic M.
Coaches
Tomczyk L.	Vanoli P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Tudor F. ↓, Mosor A. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', 1 - 0, Struski K. ⚽, Lopez I. (A),
61', Fazzini J. ↓, Gosens R. ↑,
61', Kean M. ↓, Piccoli R. ↑,
69', 1 - 1, Ndour C. ⚽,
70', Lopez I. ↓, Diaby-Fadiga L. ↑,
72', Dodo 🟨,
79', Makuch P. ↓, Rocha L. ↑,
79', Struski K. ↓, Bulat M. ↑,
80', Silva J. C. ↓, Adriano ↑,
85', Ndour C. 🟨,
87', Ameyaw M. 🟨,
87', Brunes J. 🟨,
88', Dodo ↓, Pongracic M. ↑,
90', Tomczyk L. 🟨,
90+1', Fagioli N. ↓, Mandragora R. ↑,
90+1', Harrison J. ↓, Gudmundsson A. ↑,
90+5', Pongracic M. 🟨,
90+7', 1 - 2, Pongracic M. ⚽, Gudmundsson A. (A),

Preview

First leg result: 1-2. Second leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - ArcelorMittal Park.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Fiorentina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Raków has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Raków: Abraham O. (Inactive) Brusberg I. (Inactive) Dawidowicz P. (Inactive) Kochergin V. (Knee Injury) Otieno E. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Brescianini M. (Inactive) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Rugani D. (Inactive) Solomon M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Lezzerini L. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Raków won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

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Outrights of UEFA Europa Conference League for now

Fiorentina: 12.41%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Raków Częstochowa
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.03.26	Górnik Zabrze - Raków Częstochowa	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Fiorentina - Raków Częstochowa	2:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
08.03.26	Raków Częstochowa - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0 ✺
Polish Cup
05.03.26	Avia Świdnik - Raków Częstochowa	1:2 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.03.26	Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLWWL
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
16.03.26	Cremonese - Fiorentina	1:4 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Fiorentina - Raków Częstochowa	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
08.03.26	Fiorentina - Parma	0:0 ✺
02.03.26	Udinese - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.02.26	Fiorentina - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:4 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Fiorentina - Raków Częstochowa	2:1

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