Match Info

Liga Primera - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DAZN
Bolivia	DAZN
Ecuador	DAZN
Paraguay	DAZN
Uruguay	DAZN
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	DAZN


	Rancho Santana		Real Estelí

	1	X	2
	8.25	5.00	1.27
	8.2	4.8	1.26	Watch
	8.49	5.26	1.26
	9.3	5.34	1.29	Watch
	8.3	5.15	1.23
	11.8	5.69	1.24
	8	4.9	1.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.91 ↑ (6.5)	5.16 ↑ (4.3)	1.26 ↓ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rancho Santana
10.2%

Draw
17.6%

Real Estelí
72.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.5%

20.4%

66.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.7%

17.5%

56.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rancho Santana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Real Estelí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Estelí's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rancho Santana than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rancho Santana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Estelí than the current prediction. (-15.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Estelí, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Rancho Santana - Real Estelí Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 🟥,
77', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Primera (Apertura ~ Winners: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rancho Santana won 1.

Rancho Santana has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Real Estelí has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Real Estelí may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Real Estelí is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Rancho Santana won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:22. (average 0.6:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Rancho Santana won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 1:2.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Esteli	10	5	3	2	17:7	10	18
10	Rancho Santana	10	1	2	7	8:20	-12	5

Last Results with these Odds

Real Estelí - the odds 1.33 are the expected chance of winning is 66.05%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rancho Santana FC
Nicaraguan Liga Primera
02.09.26	Municipal Jalapa - Rancho Santana	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Matagalpa - Rancho Santana	0:1 ✺
23.08.26	Rancho Santana - San Marcos	1:2 ✺
15.08.26	Rancho Santana - Walter Ferretti	1:3 ✺
01.08.26	Rancho Santana - Sport Sébaco	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TWLLL
- Real Estelí
Nicaraguan Liga Primera
02.09.26	Real Estelí - San Marcos	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	Sport Sébaco - Real Estelí	0:5 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
26.08.26	CD Marathón - Real Estelí	3:0 ✺
Nicaraguan Liga Primera
22.08.26	Real Estelí - Diriangén	0:2 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
18.08.26	Real Estelí - Herediano	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Nicaraguan Liga Primera
08.03.26	Rancho Santana - Real Estelí	0:4
04.02.26	Real Estelí - Rancho Santana	0:1
16.10.25	Real Estelí - Rancho Santana	4:0
04.08.25	Rancho Santana - Real Estelí	0:1
01.03.25	Real Estelí - Rancho Santana	3:0
18.01.25	Rancho Santana - Real Estelí	3:2
05.10.24	Rancho Santana - Real Estelí	1:3

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