Match Info

Date: 21 November 2020, Saturday


	Rayo Vallecano		Castellón

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.6	5.5	Watch
	1.67	3.5	5.25
	1.63	3.65	5.5	Watch
	1.63	3.45	5.6
	1.66	3.7	6.29
	1.67	3.5	5.5	Watch
	1.65	3.72	5.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.65)	3.59 ↑ (3.58)	5.62 ↑ (5.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rayo Vallecano
57.1%

Draw
26.2%

Castellón
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.7%

26.2%

17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

15.9%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Castellón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (-22.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rayo Vallecano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castellón than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Castellón could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	10%	23.3%

Rayo Vallecano - Castellón Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 20 - 66.7%). Castellón will win (votes: 7 - 23.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rayo Vallecano: 49.8% – 83.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 10 and 18).

Rayo Vallecano has a very small chance of relegated (3%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (33%), has a chance of promoted (17%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

Castellón has a chance of relegated (47%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (2%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Both teams are in bad shape now.

In this match Rayo Vallecano is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga2
16.11.20	Sporting de Gijón - Rayo Vallecano	1:1 ✺
08.11.20	Rayo Vallecano - Almería	0:1 ✺
01.11.20	Lugo - Rayo Vallecano	1:0 ✺
29.10.20	Rayo Vallecano - Fuenlabrada	2:0 ✺
25.10.20	Albacete Balompié - Rayo Vallecano	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLLWL
- CD Castellón
Spanish LaLiga2
15.11.20	Castellón - Cartagena	2:1 ✺
08.11.20	Real Oviedo - Castellón	4:0 ✺
02.11.20	Sporting de Gijón - Castellón	1:0 ✺
28.10.20	Castellón - Almería	1:2 ✺
24.10.20	Castellón - Girona	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLLLL

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