Match Info

LaLiga - Round 19

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid)

Referee: Martinez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
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Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
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Canada	TSN+
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Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+, SCTV 15


	Rayo Vallecano		Mallorca

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.2	4.75	Watch
	1.92	3.25	4.45	Watch
	1.91	3.22	4.68	Watch
	1.91	3.1	4.5
	1.94	3.26	4.83	Watch
	1.9	3.1	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.8)	3.19 ↓ (3.38)	4.7 ↓ (4.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rayo Vallecano
49.8%

Draw
29.9%

Mallorca
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

28.1%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

27.8%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rayo Vallecano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Mallorca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mallorca than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.4%	42.9%	10.7%

Rayo Vallecano - Mallorca Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 13 - 46.4%). Mallorca will win (votes: 3 - 10.7%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rayo Vallecano: 27.9% – 64.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Rayo Vallecano (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +1 - Mallorca (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Rayo Vallecano (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Mallorca (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Batalla A. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 24. Lejeune F. 32. Mendy N. 3. Chavarria P. 4. Diaz P. 23. Valentin O. (C) 19. de Frutos J. 7. Palazon I. 18. Garcia A. 14. Martin C.	1. Roman L. (G) 23. Maffeo P. 24. Valjent M. (C) 4. Kumbulla M. 22. Mojica J. 5. Mascarell O. 12. Samu Costa 6. Sanchez A. 17. Virgili J. 3. Lato T. 7. Muriqi V.
Substitutes
9. Alemao 20. Balliu I. 10. Camello S. 1. Cardenas D. (G) 15. Gumbau G. 40. Molina A. (G) 11. Nteka R. 22. Pacha 21. Perez F. 8. Trejo O. 33. Vertrouwd J.	11. Asano T. 13. Bergstrom L. (G) 10. Darder S. 18. Joseph M. 19. Llabres J. 27. Lopez D. 2. Morey Bauza M. 9. Prats A. 26. Salhi I. 20. Torre P.
Coaches
Perez I.	Arrasate J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, de Frutos J. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
15', Mojica J. 🟨,
30', 1 - 1, Muriqi V. ⚽, Lato T. (A),
38', Ratiu A. ↓, Balliu I. ↑,
40', Valjent M. 🟨,
42', 2 - 1, Palazon I. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', de Frutos J. 🟨,
58', Lato T. 🟨,
59', Lato T. ↓, Joseph M. ↑,
61', Maffeo P. 🟨,
69', Diaz P. ↓, Gumbau G. ↑,
69', de Frutos J. ↓, Pacha ↑,
70', Sanchez A. ↓, Darder S. ↑,
70', Mascarell O. ↓, Torre P. ↑,
79', Martin C. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
80', Valentin O. 🟥,
80', Garcia A. ↓, Nteka R. ↑,
81', Samu Costa ↓, Llabres J. ↑,
81', Maffeo P. ↓, Prats A. ↑,
85', Torre P. 🟨,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 15 and 17)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Mallorca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Rayo Vallecano is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Ciss P. (International duty) Luiz Felipe (Injury) Mendez D. (Injury)

There will not play in Mallorca: Morlanes M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Mumin A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Mallorca: Pichu Cuellar (Injury) Raillo A. (Shoulder Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 15:20. (average 0.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Rayo Vallecano won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.1:0.9).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Rayo Vallecano: 0.29%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11:16	-5	8

Last Results with these Odds

Rayo Vallecano - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 52.76%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.01.26	Granada - Rayo Vallecano	1:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
02.01.26	Rayo Vallecano - Getafe	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	Elche - Rayo Vallecano	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	Rayo Vallecano - Drita Gjilan	3:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
15.12.25	Rayo Vallecano - Betis	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WTLWT
- RCD Mallorca
Spanish LaLiga
04.01.26	Mallorca - Girona	1:2 ✺
19.12.25	Valencia - Mallorca	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
16.12.25	Deportivo A Coruña - Mallorca	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.12.25	Mallorca - Elche	3:1 ✺
05.12.25	Real Oviedo - Mallorca	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
24.05.25	Rayo Vallecano - Mallorca	0:0
20.10.24	Mallorca - Rayo Vallecano	1:0
11.02.24	Mallorca - Rayo Vallecano	2:1
30.09.23	Rayo Vallecano - Mallorca	2:2
04.06.23	Mallorca - Rayo Vallecano	3:0
27.08.22	Rayo Vallecano - Mallorca	0:2
15.05.22	Mallorca - Rayo Vallecano	2:1

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