Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 3 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Brígido Iriarte (Caracas)

Referee: Betancur Gutierrez C. A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 3


	Rayo Zuliano		Danubio

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.4	2.1	Watch
	3.5	3.25	2.1
	3.4	3.3	2.1	Watch
	3.55	3.25	2.14
	3.51	3.2	2.14
	3.25	3.3	2.05	Watch
	3.42	3.4	2.09	Watch
	3.45	3.25	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.46 ↑ (3.12)	3.29 ↑ (3.28)	2.1 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rayo Zuliano
27%

Draw
28.4%

Danubio
44.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.8%

28.4%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

29.3%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rayo Zuliano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Danubio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Zuliano than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	10%	70%

Rayo Zuliano - Danubio Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Rayo Zuliano will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Danubio will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Danubio: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Valdes D. (G) 33. Faria Angel 4. Rodriguez H. 13. Melean D. 32. Barboza A. 18. Castro E. 14. Araujo A. 43. Padron G. 16. Martinez G. 19. Ramirez S. 37. Araque A.	1. Goicoechea M. (G) 4. Ancheta E. 3. Fracchia M. 20. Ferreira L. 22. Saravia F. 19. Romero S. 34. Lewis K. 39. Sanseviero L. 30. Fernandez S. 11. Rossi N. 33. Leyes G.
Substitutes
7. Colina Bracho J. A. 1. Corredor L. (G) 25. Julio J. 36. Maldonado C. 88. Martinez J. 27. Mejia J. 39. Pagnano P. 22. Penilla E. 24. Quintero J. 70. Ramirez H. 21. Romero C. 17. Velez J.	27. Arguello M. 14. Brazionis 18. Bueno G. 2. Etchebarne S. 9. Fernandez J. 10. Monzeglio M. 15. Nunez R. 7. Pintos I. 12. Rio J. (G) 17. Silvestre F. 8. Tizon C.
Coaches
Martinez E.	Saralegui M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Padron G. 🟨,
31', Melean D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
51', Sanseviero L. ↓, Bueno G. ↑,
51', Saravia F. ↓, Tizon C. ↑,
60', Ancheta E. 🟨,
61', Rossi N. ↓, Pintos I. ↑,
61', Romero S. ↓, Silvestre F. ↑,
66', Araque A. ↓, Ramirez H. ↑,
68', Leyes G. ↓, Monzeglio M. ↑,
74', Castro E. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
78', 0 - 1, Bueno G. ⚽, Ancheta E. (A),
81', Lewis K. 🟨,
85', Martinez G. ↓, Colina Bracho J. A. ↑,
85', Ramirez S. ↓, Mejia J. ↑,
86', Melean D. ↓, Penilla E. ↑,
90', Colina Bracho J. A. 🟨,
90+2', Silvestre F. 🟨,
90+3', 0 - 2, Fernandez S. ⚽, Bueno G. (A),

Preview

Rayo Zuliano has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Danubio is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Danubio could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Danubio have a series of guest games.

Danubio will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rayo Zuliano
Venezuelan Primera Division
30.03.24	Rayo Zuliano - Universidad Central	2:2 ✺
23.03.24	Metropolitanos - Rayo Zuliano	1:0 ✺
20.03.24	Rayo Zuliano - Inter de Barinas	0:1 ✺
17.03.24	Monagas - Rayo Zuliano	2:1 ✺
10.03.24	Rayo Zuliano - Angostura	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TLLLL
- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.03.24	Defensor Sporting - Danubio	1:0 ✺
24.03.24	Danubio - Montevideo Wanderers	0:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
13.03.24	Defensor Sporting - Danubio	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.03.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Danubio	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.03.24	Montevideo Wanderers - Danubio	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LLLWW

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