Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Belvedere (Montevideo)

Referee: Tejera G. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Liverpool Montevideo		Danubio

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.1	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.2
	2.2	3.05	3.2
	2.27	3.23	3.56
	2.16	3.19	3.49	Watch
	2.2	3	3.3
	2.23	3.12	3.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.25)	3.1 ↑ (3.05)	3.31 ↓ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Liverpool Montevideo
42.2%

Draw
29.9%

Danubio
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

30.6%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

30.4%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Liverpool Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Danubio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Liverpool Montevideo than the current prediction. (-1%)

The ML Model estimate for Danubio aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Liverpool Montevideo - Danubio Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Liverpool will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Danubio will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Campana M. (G) 3. Strasorier S. 15. Laquidain S. 23. Castillo E. 27. Romero D. 5. Garayalde N. 20. Rabunal M. (C) 24. Amaro K. 22. Zabala D. 7. Martinez F. 11. Bentancourt R.	1. Goicoechea M. (G) 2. Velazquez E. (C) 3. Pereyra J. 29. Jourdan M. 6. Sosa L. 28. Femia E. 16. Rossi I. 8. Rodriguez S. 18. Mayada C. 10. Peralta M. 7. Cabrera E.
Substitutes
31. Barcelo F. 1. Bernatene M. (G) 18. Cayetano A. 10. Degregorio R. M. 17. de Mello G. 34. Lewis K. 9. Machado R. 6. Milano S. 8. Mir M. 4. Perdomo F.	21. Azambuja N. 40. Balatti F. 25. Cabrera F. 30. Fernandez S. 20. Ferreira M. 33. Garcia D. 32. Martinez K. (G) 5. Millan J. 26. Montana A. 17. Velazquez A.
Coaches
Fossati J.	Matosas G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 0)
58', 1 - 0, Martinez F. ⚽,
59', Cabrera E. ↓, Fernandez S. ↑,
61', Zabala D. ↓, Degregorio R. M. ↑,
67', Fernandez S. 🟥,
71', 2 - 0, Degregorio R. M. ⚽,
75', Femia E. ↓, Velazquez A. ↑,
75', Rodriguez S. ↓, Azambuja N. ↑,
75', Sosa L. ↓, Ferreira M. ↑,
76', Bentancourt R. ↓, Barcelo F. ↑,
76', Martinez F. ↓, Mir M. ↑,
85', Rossi I. ↓, Balatti F. ↑,
86', 3 - 0, Barcelo F. (Penalty Awarded),
90', Amaro K. ↓, Machado R. ↑,
90', Garayalde N. ↓, Perdomo F. ↑,
90+3', Rabunal M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Liverpool won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Liverpool might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Liverpool won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 26:26. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Liverpool won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1.5:1.6).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Danubio	9	1	4	4	4:10	-6	7

Last Results with these Odds

Liverpool Montevideo - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.54%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Danubio - the odds 3.36 are the expected chance of winning is 27.82%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Liverpool Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.04.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	1:3 ✺
13.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	0:2 ✺
05.04.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	0:2 ✺
31.03.26	Progreso - Liverpool Montevideo	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TLWLT
- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.04.26	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Central Español - Danubio	2:2 ✺
04.04.26	Danubio - Montevideo City Torque	1:1 ✺
30.03.26	Cerro Largo - Danubio	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
03.08.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Danubio	0:0
01.02.25	Danubio - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1
22.09.24	Danubio - Liverpool Montevideo	1:0
28.07.24	Danubio - Liverpool Montevideo	2:0
10.03.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Danubio	1:2
26.08.23	Liverpool Montevideo - Danubio	1:0
12.02.23	Danubio - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1

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