Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 37

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta (Avilés)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Real Avilés		Barakaldo

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.2	2.4
	2.55	3.1	2.4
	2.68	3.15	2.48
	2.7	3.25	2.47
	2.78	3.19	2.53	Watch
	2.63	3	2.4
	2.63	3.14	2.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↓ (3.11)	3.15 ↓ (3.35)	2.44 ↑ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Avilés
34.2%

Draw
28.8%

Barakaldo
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

27.7%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.1%

26.9%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Avilés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Barakaldo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Barakaldo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Avilés that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Barakaldo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Real Avilés - Barakaldo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Almodovar N. (G) 2. Ortega G. 5. Babin J. 24. Lopez A. 26. Menendez O. 17. Bari Q. 18. Gete A. 8. Bautista K. 14. Cayarga B. 21. Uzkudun A. 9. Santamaria A.	13. Campos G. (G) 7. Pedernales I. 18. Arana M. 4. Dufur U. 16. Lopez O. 20. Mandiang S. 15. Castillo I. 8. Huidobro J. 11. Perez E. 19. Galarza A. 10. Sabin
Substitutes
20. Campabadal E. 15. Chukwuma E. 10. Cueto J. 3. Diaz V. 1. Fernandez A. (G) 12. Grigore R. 22. Isi Ros 7. Luis Alcalde 19. Poquet N. 23. Rivera C. 11. Rubio R.	23. Albizua U. 2. de Jesus B. 17. de Leon J. 3. Garcia B. 1. Ispizua I. (G) 5. Molina E. 14. Munoz I. 6. Naveira U. 21. Pena A. 24. Ropero I. 22. Torra M. 9. Valino A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', 1 - 0, Santamaria A. ⚽,
29', 1 - 1, Lopez O. ⚽,
38', 1 - 2, Galarza A. ⚽,
43', Bautista K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Gete A. ↓, Rivera C. ↑,
66', 🟨,
77', 1 - 3, Arana M. ⚽,
83', 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,
90+12', 1 - 4, Munoz I. ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 14 and 7).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Real Avilés won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Real Avilés won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Barakaldo	6	1	3	2	6:9	-3	6
17	Real Aviles	6	1	2	3	9:10	-1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Real Avilés - the odds 3.11 are the expected chance of winning is 29.86%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
09.05.26	Ponferradina - Real Avilés	3:1 ✺
02.05.26	Real Avilés - CD Guadalajara	2:2 ✺
26.04.26	Ferrol - Real Avilés	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Real Avilés - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Osasuna B - Real Avilés	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LTTTW
- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
09.05.26	Barakaldo - Mérida AD	2:0 ✺
01.05.26	Tenerife - Barakaldo	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Barakaldo - Lugo	3:0 ✺
19.04.26	Ponferradina - Barakaldo	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Barakaldo - Arenteiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.12.25	Barakaldo - Real Avilés	1:2
Club Friendly
17.08.24	Barakaldo - Real Avilés	1:4
Spanish Copa del Rey
10.09.14	Real Avilés - Barakaldo	0:1

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