Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 8

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta (Avilés) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Amigo G. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Spain	18:15	Footballclub


	Real Avilés		UD Ourense

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.5	4.2
	1.85	3.25	3.60
	1.75	3.4	4.2
	1.8	3.46	4.65
	1.8	3.43	4.5	Watch
	1.78	3.2	4.6
	1.75	3.68	4.41
	1.74	3.5	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.69)	3.43 ↓ (3.68)	4.3 ↓ (4.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Avilés
51.9%

Draw
26.8%

UD Ourense
21.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.9%

25.2%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

24.7%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Avilés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

UD Ourense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UD Ourense than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Real Avilés - UD Ourense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Avilés (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Real Avilés (1.37) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Avilés (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raton A. (G) 15. Alday I. 21. Sillero J. 23. Carmona A. 20. Osky 17. Prendes M. 5. Mayo S. 10. Neskes 7. Montes C. 9. Santamaria A. 14. Cayarga B.	1. Vizoso M. (G) 19. Pardo S. 4. Labrada J. 5. Puime L. 3. Cabrera J. 7. Gandarillas M. 14. Champi (C) 22. Tejon D. 16. Bastida A. 10. Ferreiro D. 11. Baldrich S.
Substitutes
6. Doncel P. 24. Franco S. 27. Liduena Alonso D. 2. Mahicas J. 11. Munoz I. 19. Poquet N. 18. Rodriguez Y. 13. Suarez Coronas Lastra M. (G)	23. Curras R. 17. Dominguez X. 6. Gonzalez N. 21. Irazu I. 24. Jansonas R. 13. Rielo B. (G) 8. Rivelott Curro 2. Varo
Coaches
Yago Iglesias	Carballo J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Montes C. ⚽, Sillero J. (A),
45+2', Bastida A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Gandarillas M. ↓, Gonzalez N. ↑,
50', Neskes 🟨,
58', Carmona A. ↓, Munoz I. ↑,
58', Neskes ↓, Doncel P. ↑,
72', Ferreiro D. ↓, Dominguez X. ↑,
73', 2 - 0, Santamaria A. ⚽,
78', Santamaria A. ↓, Mahicas J. ↑,
78', Puime L. ↓, Jansonas R. ↑,
81', Cayarga B. ↓, Poquet N. ↑,
81', Montes C. ↓, Liduena Alonso D. ↑,
85', 3 - 0, Poquet N. ⚽, Mahicas J. (A),
88', Cabrera J. ↓, Varo ↑,
88', Champi ↓, Rivelott Curro ↑,
89', Pardo S. 🟨,

Preview

A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 14th and 19th in the Relegation).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

UD Ourense could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Real Avilés for this game.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Real Aviles	9	3	2	4	15:13	2	11
19	UD Ourense	9	1	2	6	3:15	-12	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.10.26	Ponferradina - Real Avilés	0:2 ✺
02.10.26	Real Avilés - Lugo	1:2 ✺
27.09.26	Barakaldo - Real Avilés	3:3 ✺
19.09.26	Coria - Real Avilés	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Real Avilés - Unionistas de Salamanca	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WLTTW
- UD Ourense
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
10.10.26	UD Ourense - Barakaldo	1:0 ✺
03.10.26	Real Unión de Irun - UD Ourense	1:1 ✺
27.09.26	UD Ourense - Cacereño	0:0 ✺
19.09.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - UD Ourense	3:1 ✺
12.09.26	UD Ourense - UD Logroñés	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WTTLL

Real Avilés - UD Ourense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide