Match Info

Copa Colombia - First stage - Play Offs - Final

Date: 26 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Jaime Morón León (Cartagena)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Fanatiz


	Real Cartagena		Millonarios

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.1	3	Watch
	3.5	2.8	2.1
	2.3	2.92	2.98	Watch
	2.35	3.09	3.17
	2.42	3.06	2.99	Watch
	2.3	2.9	2.9
	2.45	3.09	2.97	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↓ (3.48)	2.99 ↓ (3.3)	2.87 ↑ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Cartagena
36.7%

Draw
31%

Millonarios
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.5%

28%

45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

26.5%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Cartagena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Cartagena's performance.

Millonarios has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Millonarios might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Cartagena than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Cartagena that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Millonarios could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	50%	40%

Real Cartagena - Millonarios Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Real Cartagena will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Millonarios will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Millonarios (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - draw (3.31) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
55', 1 - 0, Murillo M. (Pen),
63', Giordana S. 🟥,
76', 2 - 0, Pedrosa G. ⚽,
89', 2 - 1, Banguero D. (Pen),

Preview

1st leg result: 1-3. 2nd leg.

Real Cartagena has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Millonarios is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Real Cartagena may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Real Cartagena won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Last Results with these Odds

Millonarios - the odds 2.03 are the expected chance of winning is 45.49%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Cartagena
Colombian Primera B
22.08.25	Real Cartagena - Tigres	4:0 ✺
18.08.25	Real Cartagena - Leones	4:0 ✺
15.08.25	Real Santander - Real Cartagena	2:0 ✺
08.08.25	Boca Juniors de Cali - Real Cartagena	2:2 ✺
04.08.25	Real Cartagena - Real Cundinamarca	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWLTT
- Millonarios FC
Colombian Primera A
23.08.25	Millonarios - Junior Barranquilla	3:0 ✺
20.08.25	Millonarios - Unión Magdalena	1:2 ✺
17.08.25	Deportes Tolima - Millonarios	3:1 ✺
08.08.25	Millonarios - Deportivo Cali	3:3 ✺
03.08.25	Independiente Medellín - Millonarios	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Copa
31.07.25	Millonarios - Real Cartagena	3:1

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