The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Real Cartagena 53.6%
Draw 26.8%
Patriotas 19.7%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
43.2%
29.7%
27.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
40.7%
27.9%
31.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Real Cartagena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Cartagena's performance.
Patriotas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Patriotas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Cartagena than the current prediction. (-12.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Cartagena that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Patriotas than the current prediction. (+11.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Patriotas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Real Cartagena - Patriotas Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
22. Gomez Tovar G. E. (G) 17. Aleman J. 6. Escobar A. 18. Gallego J. P. 26. Graciano C. 80. Lopez E. 10. Montero F. 21. Pino D. 5. Solarte Espana J. A. 20. Taffur L. 24. Tegue G.
26. Macea A. (G) 10. Alvarez K. 20. Arango E. 7. Campana J. 19. Figueroa F. 4. Hurtado J. 30. Nike M. 22. Porras A. 21. Renteria L. 28. Salguero Zapata C. S. 6. Torres F.
Substitutes
33. Balanta M. 99. Castillo D. 8. Guevara L. 9. Manotas M. 27. Melendez A. 1. Montes A. (G) 28. Paternina C. 13. Rios J. . Rodriguez J.
32. Betancurt X. 8. Copete C. 16. Molina T. 14. Montes J. 3. Montien D. 11. Mora A. 12. Palacios A. 24. Sarmiento J. 5. Zapata E.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
34', 1 - 0, Graciano C. ⚽,
45+3', 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Campana J. ↓, Montes J. ↑,
55', Gallego J. P. ↓, Rios J. ↑,
57', 2 - 0, Lopez E. ⚽,
68', Taffur L. ↓, Melendez A. ↑,
68', Pino D. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
69', 🟨,
72', 3 - 0, Aleman J. ⚽,
77', Montero F. ↓, Manotas M. ↑,
77', Aleman J. ↓, Guevara L. ↑,
81', Gomez Tovar G. E. 🟨,
88', Manotas M. (Penalty Awarded),
90+1', 🟨,
Preview
A direct battle for position between neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 7th in the Promotion - Primera B (Clausura - Quadrangular: ) and 5th in the Promotion - Primera B (Clausura - Quadrangular: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Cartagena won 0.
Real Cartagena has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Patriotas has suffered a run of successive defeats (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Real Cartagena carries the favorite tag into this contest.
In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Real Cartagena has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:12 (averaging 1:1.7 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Real Cartagena against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 4:6 goals (averaging 1.3:2 per game).
Standings
Clausura
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
5
Cartagena
15
5
6
4
26:18
8
21
12
Patriotas
15
5
3
7
17:23
-6
18
Last Results with these Odds
Real Cartagena - the odds 2.06 are the expected chance of winning is 43.22%, but this team recently wins 82% of matches with these odds.
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Gomez Tovar G. E. (G) 
Figueroa F. 
Nike M. 
