Match Info

Primera B - Clausura - Quadrangular - Round 5

Date: 20 November 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Jaime Morón León (Cartagena)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Real Cartagena		Patriotas

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.82	3.45	4.05
	1.77	3.32	4.68
	1.78	3.32	4.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (1.81)	3.36 ↑ (3.22)	4.32 ↓ (4.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Cartagena
51.4%

Draw
27.3%

Patriotas
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.8%

28.5%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

27.5%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Cartagena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Patriotas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Cartagena than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patriotas than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	0%	44.4%

Real Cartagena - Patriotas Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Real Cartagena will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Patriotas will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real Cartagena: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Cartagena (votes: 1 - 50%). Patriotas (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Armesto K. (G) 8. Acosta F. 7. De La Rosa W. 24. Duque J. 97. Melendez A. 3. Mera D. 10. Montero F. 19. Moralez A. 91. Ortega M. 88. Ramirez C. 5. Solarte Espana J. A.	12. Espitia J. (G) 24. Aristizabal Juan 40. Carabali 15. Conejero D. 9. Fernandez B. 19. Figueroa F. 33. Garavito M. 4. Hurtado J. 11. Londono Y. 22. Porras C. 5. Salazar Sandoval K. A.
Substitutes
77. Acosta O. 28. Arnedo D. 18. Ditta Ruiz J. J. 17. Marrugo C. 1. Montes A. (G) 27. Mosquera D. 29. Murillo M. 21. Rodriguez J. 31. Tamayo F.	10. Alvarez K. 1. Amaya Garcia J. A. (G) 18. Angulo J. 8. Copete C. 14. Montes J. 7. Moreno S. 6. Perea V. 39. Renteria L. 27. Sarria E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Fernandez B. ⚽,
27', Porras C. 🟥,
30', Fernandez B. 🟨,
31', Fernandez B. ↓, Renteria L. ↑,
31', Acosta F. 🟨,
39', De La Rosa W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Aristizabal Juan ↓, Moreno S. ↑,
46', Solarte Espana J. A. ↓, Marrugo C. ↑,
46', Acosta F. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
46', Melendez A. ↓, Ditta Ruiz J. J. ↑,
53', Garavito M. 🟨,
56', Conejero D. ↓, Sarria E. ↑,
56', Londono Y. ↓, Perea V. ↑,
59', Ortega M. ↓, Murillo M. ↑,
70', Figueroa F. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
79', Ramirez C. 🟨,
81', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
85', 🟨,
86', 🟨,
90', Espitia J. 🟨,
90+2', Perea V. 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Real Cartagena is a strong favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Cartagena won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1.4:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Cartagena won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 2:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Cartagena
Colombian Primera B
16.11.25	Real Cundinamarca - Real Cartagena	1:2 ✺
12.11.25	Real Cartagena - Real Cundinamarca	0:0 ✺
07.11.25	Patriotas - Real Cartagena	2:2 ✺
01.11.25	Real Cartagena - Boca Juniors de Cali	1:1 ✺
27.10.25	Deportes Quindío - Real Cartagena	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WTTTT
- Patriotas FC
Colombian Primera B
15.11.25	Patriotas - Boca Juniors de Cali	1:0 ✺
11.11.25	Boca Juniors de Cali - Patriotas	1:0 ✺
07.11.25	Patriotas - Real Cartagena	2:2 ✺
01.11.25	Real Cundinamarca - Patriotas	1:0 ✺
24.10.25	Atlético Cali - Patriotas	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
07.11.25	Patriotas - Real Cartagena	2:2
15.09.25	Patriotas - Real Cartagena	3:1
16.04.25	Real Cartagena - Patriotas	1:3
28.07.23	Patriotas - Real Cartagena	0:0
09.02.23	Real Cartagena - Patriotas	3:2

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