Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Francisco Morazán (San Pedro Sula)

Where to Watch on TV:


Honduras	Deportes TV


	Real España		Victoria La Ceiba

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.35	6.7
	1.33	4.97	8.57	Watch
	1.33	4.5	7
	1.3	4.45	9.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.36)	4.57 ↑ (4.28)	7.88 ↑ (7.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real España
68.5%

Draw
19.9%

Victoria La Ceiba
11.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.5%

21.2%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.4%

20%

11.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real España has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Victoria La Ceiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real España than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

The ML Model estimate for Victoria La Ceiba aligns with the current prediction.

Real España - Victoria La Ceiba Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Lopez L. (G) 19. Aparicio D. 54. Arana M. 10. Benavidez J. 4. Capeluto J. 6. Garcia D. 27. Giron A. 14. Jean-Baptiste J. 28. Mejia C. 36. Osorto R. 30. Sayago D.	12. Perello M. (G) 5. Banegas A. 9. Blackburn R. 48. Card S. 20. Espinal M. 33. Garcia J. 2. Martinez M. 4. Oliva E. 16. Portillo A. 38. Ramirez L. 24. Sanchez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Capeluto J. 🟨,
20', Banegas A. 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Jean-Baptiste J. ⚽,
25', Osorto R. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Portillo A. ↓, Bueso G. ↑,
46', Garcia J. ↓, Bernardez C. ↑,
46', Banegas A. ↓, Kelly K. ↑,
51', 2 - 0, Garcia D. ⚽,
56', Sayago D. ↓, Hernandez E. ↑,
56', Giron A. ↓, Arzu E. ↑,
59', Blackburn R. ↓, Lahera Y. ↑,
63', 3 - 0, Hernandez E. ⚽,
67', Kelly K. 🟨,
68', Sanchez J. 🟨,
73', Martinez M. 🟨,
74', 3 - 1, Garcia D. (Own goal),
78', 4 - 1, Hernandez E. ⚽,
82', Benavidez J. ↓, Palacios Y. ↑,
86', Ramirez L. ↓, Matute C. ↑,
90+1', Jean-Baptiste J. ↓, Romero C. ↑,
90+1', Osorto R. ↓, Tatum Ferrera A. K. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Triangulares: ) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real España won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Real España is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Real España won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 37:27. (average 1.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Real España won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:13. (average 1.8:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Real Espana	8	5	3	0	13:4	9	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real España
Honduras Liga Nacional
08.03.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Real España	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Platense - Real España	2:2 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
24.02.26	Los Angeles - Real España	1:0 ✺
Honduras Liga Nacional
20.02.26	Real España - Lobos UPNFM	4:3 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
17.02.26	Real España - Los Angeles	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TTLWL
- Victoria La Ceiba
Honduras Liga Nacional
08.03.26	Victoria La Ceiba - Génesis PN	2:4 ✺
28.02.26	Juticalpa - Victoria La Ceiba	1:0 ✺
24.02.26	Victoria La Ceiba - Olancho	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Choloma - Victoria La Ceiba	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Victoria La Ceiba - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
08.11.25	Victoria La Ceiba - Real España	0:2
10.09.25	Real España - Victoria La Ceiba	1:3
20.04.25	Victoria La Ceiba - Real España	1:1
16.02.25	Real España - Victoria La Ceiba	2:1
24.11.24	Victoria La Ceiba - Real España	0:0
19.09.24	Real España - Victoria La Ceiba	1:1
13.04.24	Real España - Victoria La Ceiba	0:1

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