Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 19

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Real Jaén		Lorca Deportiva

	1	X	2
	2.02	2.88	3.7
	1.99	2.91	4.16	Watch
	2.05	2.7	3.9
	2.02	3.21	3.82
	1.96	2.9	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.61)	2.92 (2.92)	3.97 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Jaén
45.6%

Draw
31.3%

Lorca Deportiva
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

30.9%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

29.4%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Jaén has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Jaén's performance.

Lorca Deportiva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lorca Deportiva might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Jaén than the current prediction. (-12.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Jaén that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorca Deportiva than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lorca Deportiva could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Real Jaén - Lorca Deportiva Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Jaén will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Jaén (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Naranjo J. ⚽,
45+1', 1 - 1, Moyano J. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
59', 1 - 2, Peque ⚽,
72', 2 - 2, Alonso A. ⚽,
80', 3 - 2, Alonso A. ⚽,
90', 4 - 2, Alonso A. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 in the zone Segunda RFEF ~ Play Out (Play Out: ) and 6).

Jaén has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lorca Deportiva has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Jaén is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Jaén
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
11.01.26	CD Extremadura - Real Jaén	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Real Jaén - Atlético Malagueño	3:0 ✺
21.12.25	Águilas - Real Jaén	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Real Jaén - UCAM Murcia	0:3 ✺
06.12.25	Yeclano Deportivo - Real Jaén	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TWTLL
- CF Lorca Deportiva
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
11.01.26	Puente Genil - Lorca Deportiva	1:0 ✺
04.01.26	Lorca Deportiva - Almeria B	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Xerez Deportivo - Lorca Deportiva	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Lorca Deportiva - Águilas	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Antoniano - Lorca Deportiva	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWTLL

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