The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Real Jaén 16.4%
Draw 23.3%
Eldense 60.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
28.1%
28.6%
43.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
29.7%
27.1%
40.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Real Jaén has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Jaén's form might have worsened.
Eldense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Eldense's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Jaén than the current prediction. (+13.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Jaén, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Eldense than the current prediction. (-19.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Eldense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
11.1%
88.9%
Real Jaén - Eldense Predictions
Users Predictions:
Eldense will win
(8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%). Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Eldense will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
13. Morillas J. 4. Pavon A. 11. Martos M. 16. Vizcaino N. 7. Bernardo A. 17. Moyano J. 10. Adri P. 19. Alonso A. 29. Serrano D. 25. Pedro 21. Sanhaji M.
13. Valencia P. (G) 2. Serradell A. G. 8. Bustillo M. 11. Bellari H. 4. Dumic D. 12. Molina M. 5. Gaixas A. 15. Billups B. 26. Jimenez C. 23. Vallejo J. 22. Nunez R.
Substitutes
6. Alvarez J. 8. Caballero A. 3. Connor Ruane 5. Jesus del A. 18. Lopez M. 22. Lozano O. 15. Maroto A. 1. Rabanillo J. (G) 14. Rivera S. 23. Sako S.
9. Dioni 10. Fidel 20. Ibanez R. 19. Ibarrondo A. 18. Macho G. 7. Quintana Nacho 21. Ruiz D. 3. Smand F. 1. Vila R. (G)
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 3)
8', 0 - 1, Billups B. ⚽, Bellari H. (A),
19', 0 - 2, Bustillo M. ⚽,
28', 1 - 2, Martos M. ⚽, Adri P. (A),
33', Bernardo A. 🟨,
42', Nunez R. 🟨,
43', 1 - 3, Bellari H. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Molina M. ↓, Macho G. ↑,
46', Nunez R. ↓, Quintana Nacho ↑,
46', Vizcaino N. ↓, Alvarez J. ↑,
46', Adri P. ↓, Caballero A. ↑,
46', Serrano D. ↓, Connor Ruane ↑,
60', Billups B. ↓, Ruiz D. ↑,
60', Bellari H. ↓, Ibanez R. ↑,
68', Bernardo A. ↓, Rivera S. ↑,
69', Sanhaji M. ↓, Lozano O. ↑,
81', Serradell A. G. 🟨,
83', Serradell A. G. ↓, Ibarrondo A. ↑,
86', Jimenez C. 🟨,
90+2', Ibanez R. 🟨,
Preview
Jaén is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Eldense's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
Eldense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Eldense is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
In the last 1 head-to-head match, Jaén won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.
Including home match between the teams, Jaén won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.
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Morillas J. 
Pavon A. 
Alonso A. 
Sanhaji M. 
Dumic D. 
Billups B. 
Nunez R. 
Smand F. 
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