Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 9

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat (Elda)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Eldense		Real Murcia

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.9	3.1
	2.22	2.98	3.25
	2.33	2.93	3.34
	2.08	3.22	3.52	Watch
	2.34	3.02	3.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.08)	3.01 ↓ (3.22)	3.29 ↓ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Eldense
41.2%

Draw
30.7%

Real Murcia
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

28.9%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

25.1%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Eldense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Real Murcia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Eldense than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Murcia than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Eldense - Real Murcia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Valencia P. (G) 10. Fidel 2. Serradell A. G. 3. Smand F. 21. Ruiz D. 19. Ibarrondo A. 12. Molina M. 8. Bustillo M. 18. Macho G. 7. Quintana Nacho 9. Dioni	1. Gazzaniga G. (G) 26. Perez H. 2. Mier J. 4. Lopez A. 6. Gonzalez A. 3. Romero C. 9. Benito P. A. P. 31. Djanbou S. 7. Moyita S. 32. Adebayo K. 23. Bosilj D.
Substitutes
11. Bellari H. 15. Billups B. 4. Dumic D. 5. Gaixas A. 20. Ibanez R. 26. Jimenez C. 22. Nunez R. . Pina A. (G) 23. Vallejo J.	16. Antonio David 11. Bustos A. 10. Gomez I. 30. Joao Pedro Palmberg 22. Juan Carlos 35. Kajaia S. (G) 14. Leon P. 19. Matheus Cadorini 29. Sarabia A. 8. Schalk A. 20. Zenitagoia E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Benito P. A. P. 🟨,
41', Mier J. 🟨,
45+3', Dioni 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', 🟨,
56', Adebayo K. ↓, Zenitagoia E. ↑,
61', 1 - 0, Ruiz D. ⚽,
64', 1 - 1, Zenitagoia E. ⚽,
65', Djanbou S. ↓, Juan Carlos ↑,
65', Perez H. ↓, Llobell R. ↑,
70', Quintana Nacho ↓, Bellari H. ↑,
76', Bosilj D. ↓, Schalk A. ↑,
82', Dioni ↓, Nunez R. ↑,
90+4', Fidel ↓, Ibanez R. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 15 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

In recent matches, Eldense has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Murcia's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Murcia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Eldense might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Eldense won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Eldense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Eldense
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
18.10.25	CE Europa - Eldense	1:1 ✺
11.10.25	Marbella - Eldense	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Eldense - Juventud de Torremolinos	3:3 ✺
27.09.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Eldense	3:0 ✺
21.09.25	Eldense - Sevilla B	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TLTLW
- Real Murcia
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
19.10.25	Real Murcia - Ibiza	0:2 ✺
11.10.25	Tarazona - Real Murcia	1:0 ✺
03.10.25	Real Murcia - Sevilla B	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	Algeciras - Real Murcia	1:0 ✺
19.09.25	Real Murcia - Villarreal B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
06.08.25	Real Murcia - Eldense	3:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
27.05.23	Real Murcia - Eldense	1:2
14.01.23	Eldense - Real Murcia	1:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
03.04.22	Eldense - Real Murcia	1:3
14.11.21	Real Murcia - Eldense	1:2

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