Match Info

LaLiga - Round 29

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Munuera J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport 5, Startimes Am'mobi, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	21:00	SuperSport 2
Andorra	21:00	beIN Sports 1
Argentina	17:00	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	07:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	21:00	DAZN 2, DAZN
Azerbaijan	00:00	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	02:00	Begin
Belarus	23:00	Belarus 5
Bolivia	16:00	ESPN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	17:00	Disney+
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 4
Canada	16:00	TSN+
China	04:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	15:00	ESPN
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cuba	16:00	Tele Rebelde
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Ecuador	15:00	ESPN
Europe	—	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	21:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Georgia	00:00	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Universal
Germany	21:00	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	22:00	Nova Sports 1
Haiti	16:00	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong Kong	04:00	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	21:00	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	01:30	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, SCTV, Vidio
Italy	21:00	20 Mediaset, 214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia
Japan	05:00	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	02:00	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	23:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 3
Kyrgyzstan	02:00	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Macao	04:00	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Madagascar	23:00	UpTV
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	01:00	ICE Xtra, Medianet
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	14:00	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	22:00	Setanta Sports 2
Mozambique	22:00	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	09:00	beIN Connect
Nigeria	21:00	SuperSport LaLiga, Supersport Maximo 1
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	21:00	TDM Desporto
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Paraguay	16:00	ESPN
Peru	15:00	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	21:00	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1, Prima TV
Russia	23:00	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	04:00	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	21:00	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	Arena Sport 1
South Africa	22:00	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga, Supersport Maximo 1
Spain	21:00	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga
Suriname	17:00	QN Sports
Sweden	21:00	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport D1
Tajikistan	01:00	Setanta Sports 2, Varzish Sport
Thailand	03:00	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	23:00	S Sport, S Sport+
Turkmenistan	01:00	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	16:00	DAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, Fubo Sports Network
Uzbekistan	01:00	Setanta Sports 2, Zor TV
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	03:00	SCTV 22, SCTV Online


	Real Madrid		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.9	3.5	Watch
	1.85	3.9	3.8
	2.02	3.7	3.45	Watch
	2.06	3.95	3.69
	1.88	4.06	3.79
	1.91	3.7	3.5
	1.99	3.97	3.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.9)	3.88 ↓ (3.95)	3.65 ↑ (3.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
49.1%

Draw
24.7%

Atlético Madrid
26.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

49.8%

24%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

24.4%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.3%	18.7%	8%

Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 73 users predict this event. Real will win (votes: 53 - 72.6%). Atlético will win (votes: 6 - 8.2%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 19.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 62.4% – 82.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Real (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Atlético (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Atlético (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Lunin A. (G) 2. Carvajal D. (C) 22. Rudiger A. 24. Huijsen D. 20. Garcia F. 8. Valverde F. 45. Pitarch T. 14. Tchouameni A. 15. Guler A. 21. Diaz B. 7. Vinicius Junior	1. Musso J. (G) 14. Llorente M. 17. Hancko D. 24. Le Normand R. 3. Ruggeri M. 20. Simeone G. 6. Koke (C) 5. Cardoso J. 22. Lookman A. 7. Griezmann A. 19. Alvarez J.
Substitutes
27. Aguado D. 4. Alaba D. 12. Alexander-Arnold T. 5. Bellingham J. 6. Camavinga E. 18. Carreras A. 26. Fran (G) 16. Garcia G. 30. Mastantuono F. 10. Mbappe K. 43. Mestre S. (G) 37. Moran M. A.	11. Almada T. 10. Baena A. 33. de Luis M. (G) 34. Diaz J. 31. Esquivel S. (G) 2. Gimenez J. M. 23. Gonzalez N. 15. Lenglet C. 16. Molina N. 9. Sorloth A. 21. Vargas O.
Coaches
Arbeloa A.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', Cardoso J. 🟨,
33', 0 - 1, Lookman A. ⚽, Simeone G. (A),
36', Ruggeri M. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Le Normand R. ↓, Gimenez J. M. ↑,
52', 1 - 1, Vinicius Junior (Penalty Awarded),
55', 2 - 1, Valverde F. ⚽,
57', Griezmann A. ↓, Sorloth A. ↑,
57', Cardoso J. ↓, Gonzalez N. ↑,
57', Lookman A. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
61', Hancko D. 🟨,
63', Pitarch T. 🟨,
64', Pitarch T. ↓, Mbappe K. ↑,
64', Carvajal D. ↓, Alexander-Arnold T. ↑,
66', 2 - 2, Molina N. ⚽, Alvarez J. (A),
68', Llorente M. 🟨,
71', Simeone G. ↓, Baena A. ↑,
72', 3 - 2, Vinicius Junior ⚽, Alexander-Arnold T. (A),
74', Guler A. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
74', Diaz B. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
77', Valverde F. 🟥,
87', Vinicius Junior ↓, Carreras A. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real won 3.

Real is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Atlético's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Real is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Real: Ceballos D. (Muscle Injury) Courtois T. (Thigh Injury) Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Barrios P. (Muscle Injury) Mendoza R. (Injury) Oblak J. (Muscle Injury) Pubill M. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Real won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 31:26. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Real won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 19:8. (average 1.9:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Madrid	10	8	1	1	20:8	12	25
3	Real Madrid	10	8	0	2	25:10	15	24

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Real Madrid: 23.72% Atl. Madrid: 6.42%

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 49.76%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League
17.03.26	Manchester City - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
14.03.26	Real Madrid - Elche	4:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.03.26	Real Madrid - Manchester City	3:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
06.03.26	Celta de Vigo - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
02.03.26	Real Madrid - Getafe	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 WWWWL
- Atlético Madrid
UEFA Champions League
18.03.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Atlético Madrid	3:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
14.03.26	Atlético Madrid - Getafe	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.03.26	Atlético Madrid - Tottenham Hotspur	5:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
07.03.26	Atlético Madrid - Real Sociedad	3:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
03.03.26	Barcelona - Atlético Madrid	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Supercopa
08.01.26	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	1:2
Spanish LaLiga
27.09.25	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	5:2
UEFA Champions League
12.03.25	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	1:1 penalties
04.03.25	Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid	2:1
Spanish LaLiga
08.02.25	Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid	1:1
29.09.24	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	1:1
04.02.24	Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid	1:1

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