Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 17 March 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	21:00	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	17:00	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 2, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 3
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 2, Pickx+ Sports 2, RTL Club, RTL Play, VTM 2, VTM GO
Bolivia	16:00	ESPN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Premium 1
Brazil	17:00	Claro TV+, HBO Max, SBT, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 3
Canada	16:00	DAZN Canada
China	04:00	iQIYI, ZhiBo8
Colombia	15:00	ESPN
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	TV3+, Viaplay
Ecuador	15:00	ESPN
Europe	—	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	21:00	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2, CANAL+ Sport
Germany	21:00	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	20:00	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	01:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Italy	21:00	Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Calcio
Kenya	23:00	Gotv
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Mexico	14:00	HBO Max, TNT Go, TNT Sports
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	21:00	SuperSport Football Plus, Supersport Maximo 2
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	01:00	Tapmad
Papua New Guinea	06:00	TVWan Sports
Paraguay	17:00	ESPN
Peru	15:00	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	21:00	Kanal A, Nova Sport 6
South Africa	22:00	SuperSport Premier League
South Korea	05:00	SPOTV Now
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Suriname	17:00	ATV Suriname
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1, Canal+ Sport, Canal+ Sport, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	03:00	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	23:00	Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United Kingdom	20:00	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	16:00	DAZN USA, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	01:00	Futbol TV, Zor TV
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	03:00	ON Plus, VTV Prime
International	20:00	Sport 24, VIX App


	Manchester City		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	1.42	5.75	5.75
	1.43	6.8	5.25
	1.44	6.05	6.05
	1.53	5.61	5.07	Watch
	1.4	5	5.5
	1.46	5.94	6.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.47)	5.86 ↑ (5.71)	5.64 ↑ (5.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester City
66.5%

Draw
16.4%

Real Madrid
17.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

65.2%

16.8%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.6%

16.1%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
39.2%	11.8%	49%

Manchester City - Real Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Man City will win (votes: 20 - 39.2%). Real will win (votes: 25 - 49%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 35.3% – 62.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Man City (votes: 2 - 40%). Real (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Real (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Real (2.74) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.25 - Real (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Man City (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Real (votes: 9 - 81.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Donnarumma G. (G) 27. Nunes M. 45. Khusanov A. 3. Dias R. 21. Ait-Nouri R. 20. Silva B. (C) 16. Rodri 10. Cherki R. 4. Reijnders T. 11. Doku J. 9. Haaland E.	1. Courtois T. (G) 12. Alexander-Arnold T. 22. Rudiger A. 24. Huijsen D. 20. Garcia F. 8. Valverde F. (C) 45. Pitarch T. 14. Tchouameni A. 15. Guler A. 21. Diaz B. 7. Vinicius Junior
Substitutes
6. Ake N. 47. Foden P. 15. Guehi M. 8. Kovacic M. 82. Lewis R. 7. Marmoush O. 14. Nico 33. O'Reilly N. 26. Savinho 42. Semenyo A. 5. Stones J. 1. Trafford J. (G)	27. Aguado D. 4. Alaba D. 6. Camavinga E. 18. Carreras A. 2. Carvajal D. 28. Cestero Sancho J. 16. Garcia G. 13. Lunin A. (G) 30. Mastantuono F. 10. Mbappe K. 37. Moran M. A. 38. Palacios C.
Coaches
Guardiola P.	Arbeloa A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', Silva B. 🟥,
22', 0 - 1, Vinicius Junior (Penalty Awarded),
25', Guardiola P. 🟨,
41', 1 - 1, Haaland E. ⚽,
45+4', Khusanov A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Dias R. ↓, Guehi M. ↑,
46', Reijnders T. ↓, Ake N. ↑,
46', Courtois T. ↓, Lunin A. ↑,
57', Haaland E. ↓, Marmoush O. ↑,
57', Nunes M. ↓, Semenyo A. ↑,
69', Diaz B. ↓, Mbappe K. ↑,
74', Rodri ↓, Nico ↑,
74', Guler A. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
74', Pitarch T. ↓, Moran M. A. ↑,
76', Mbappe K. 🟨,
80', Alexander-Arnold T. 🟨,
83', Alexander-Arnold T. ↓, Carvajal D. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 2, Vinicius Junior ⚽, Tchouameni A. (A),

Preview

First leg result: 0-3. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Man City won 1.

Man City has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Real is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Real may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Man City has had a series of away games.

Recently, Real has had a series of home games.

In this match, Man City is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Man City: Gvardiol J. (Broken Leg) Nypan S. (Inactive)

There will not play in Real: Asencio R. (Muscle Injury) Ceballos D. (Muscle Injury) Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Man City: Lewis R. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Man City won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 31:34. (average 1.7:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Man City won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 2.1:1.7).

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	10:5	5	9
10	Manchester City	3	2	0	1	9:5	4	6

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Real Madrid: 8.73% Manchester City: 7.14%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester City
English Premier League
14.03.26	West Ham United - Manchester City	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.03.26	Real Madrid - Manchester City	3:0 ✺
English FA Cup
07.03.26	Newcastle United - Manchester City	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
04.03.26	Manchester City - Nottingham Forest	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Leeds United - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TLWTW
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
14.03.26	Real Madrid - Elche	4:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.03.26	Real Madrid - Manchester City	3:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
06.03.26	Celta de Vigo - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
02.03.26	Real Madrid - Getafe	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.02.26	Real Madrid - Benfica	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
11.03.26	Real Madrid - Manchester City	3:0
10.12.25	Real Madrid - Manchester City	1:2
19.02.25	Real Madrid - Manchester City	3:1
11.02.25	Manchester City - Real Madrid	2:3
17.04.24	Manchester City - Real Madrid	1:2 penalties
09.04.24	Real Madrid - Manchester City	3:3
17.05.23	Manchester City - Real Madrid	4:0

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