Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 17 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester)

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Manchester City		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	1.42	5.75	5.75
	1.43	6.8	5.25
	1.44	6.05	6.05
	1.53	5.61	5.07	Watch
	1.4	5	5.5
	1.46	5.94	6.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.47)	5.86 ↑ (5.71)	5.64 ↑ (5.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester City
66.5%

Draw
16.4%

Real Madrid
17.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.2%

16.8%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.6%

16.4%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
39.2%	11.8%	49%

Manchester City - Real Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Man City will win (votes: 20 - 39.2%). Real will win (votes: 25 - 49%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 35.3% – 62.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Man City (votes: 2 - 40%). Real (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Real (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Real (2.74) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.25 - Real (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Man City (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Real (votes: 9 - 81.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Donnarumma G. (G) 27. Nunes M. 45. Khusanov A. 3. Dias R. 21. Ait-Nouri R. 20. Silva B. (C) 16. Rodri 10. Cherki R. 4. Reijnders T. 11. Doku J. 9. Haaland E.	1. Courtois T. (G) 12. Alexander-Arnold T. 22. Rudiger A. 24. Huijsen D. 20. Garcia F. 8. Valverde F. (C) 45. Pitarch T. 14. Tchouameni A. 15. Guler A. 21. Diaz B. 7. Vinicius Junior
Substitutes
6. Ake N. 47. Foden P. 15. Guehi M. 8. Kovacic M. 82. Lewis R. 7. Marmoush O. 14. Nico 33. O'Reilly N. 26. Savinho 42. Semenyo A. 5. Stones J. 1. Trafford J. (G)	27. Aguado D. 4. Alaba D. 6. Camavinga E. 18. Carreras A. 2. Carvajal D. 28. Cestero Sancho J. 16. Garcia G. 13. Lunin A. (G) 30. Mastantuono F. 10. Mbappe K. 37. Moran M. A. 38. Palacios C.
Coaches
Guardiola P.	Arbeloa A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', Silva B. 🟥,
22', 0 - 1, Vinicius Junior (Penalty Awarded),
25', Guardiola P. 🟨,
41', 1 - 1, Haaland E. ⚽,
45+4', Khusanov A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Dias R. ↓, Guehi M. ↑,
46', Reijnders T. ↓, Ake N. ↑,
46', Courtois T. ↓, Lunin A. ↑,
57', Haaland E. ↓, Marmoush O. ↑,
57', Nunes M. ↓, Semenyo A. ↑,
69', Diaz B. ↓, Mbappe K. ↑,
74', Rodri ↓, Nico ↑,
74', Guler A. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
74', Pitarch T. ↓, Moran M. A. ↑,
76', Mbappe K. 🟨,
80', Alexander-Arnold T. 🟨,
83', Alexander-Arnold T. ↓, Carvajal D. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 2, Vinicius Junior ⚽, Tchouameni A. (A),

Preview

First leg result: 0-3. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Man City won 1.

Man City has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Real is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Real may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Man City has had a series of away games.

Recently, Real has had a series of home games.

In this match, Man City is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Man City: Gvardiol J. (Broken Leg) Nypan S. (Inactive)

There will not play in Real: Asencio R. (Muscle Injury) Ceballos D. (Muscle Injury) Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Man City: Lewis R. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Man City won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 31:34. (average 1.7:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Man City won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 2.1:1.7).

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Real Madrid: 10.27% Manchester City: 7.53%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Manchester City	1	1	0	0	2:0	2	3
14	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	2:1	1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester City
English Premier League
14.03.26	West Ham United - Manchester City	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.03.26	Real Madrid - Manchester City	3:0 ✺
English FA Cup
07.03.26	Newcastle United - Manchester City	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
04.03.26	Manchester City - Nottingham Forest	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Leeds United - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TLWTW
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
14.03.26	Real Madrid - Elche	4:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.03.26	Real Madrid - Manchester City	3:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
06.03.26	Celta de Vigo - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
02.03.26	Real Madrid - Getafe	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.02.26	Real Madrid - Benfica	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
11.03.26	Real Madrid - Manchester City	3:0
10.12.25	Real Madrid - Manchester City	1:2
19.02.25	Real Madrid - Manchester City	3:1
11.02.25	Manchester City - Real Madrid	2:3
17.04.24	Manchester City - Real Madrid	1:2 penalties
09.04.24	Real Madrid - Manchester City	3:3
17.05.23	Manchester City - Real Madrid	4:0

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