Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 37

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV, Real Madrid TV


	Real Madrid Castilla		Fuenlabrada

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.8	5
	1.85	3.2	3.7
	1.59	4	4.9
	1.57	4.16	4.8
	1.56	4.13	4.93	Watch
	1.6	3.96	5.21
	1.59	4	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.78)	3.89 ↑ (3.3)	4.78 ↑ (4.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
57.1%

Draw
23.6%

Fuenlabrada
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.4%

27.8%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

27%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Madrid Castilla's performance.

Fuenlabrada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fuenlabrada than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Real Madrid Castilla - Fuenlabrada Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Madrid Castilla (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Fuenlabrada (2.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Madrid Castilla (votes: 1 - 50%). Fuenlabrada (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Fran (G) 29. Rivas M. 15. Ribes K. 4. Pujol E. 22. Jimenez D. 27. Fortuny P. 36. Andres C. 37. Valdepenas V. 7. Garcia G. 19. Zuniga L. 44. Munoz V.	1. Diaz L. (G) 17. Ouacharaf B. 5. Alba D. 3. Barbu 14. Barbosa A. 18. Sangare L. 6. Alvaro Garcia 10. Galindo A. 15. Moyano A. 7. Manu 11. Abde
Substitutes
11. Alonso B. 16. Antonio David 20. Campos A. 25. de Luis M. (G) 40. Diocou B. 2. Lorenzo 10. Palacios C. 1. Pineiro del Alamo D. (G) 17. Ruiz D. 23. Yusi	19. Abdellah D. 13. Bloch F. (G) 20. Casas I. 23. Chang-Sang J. 26. Garcia M. 33. Gonzalez M. 22. Javi Curras 4. Mauro M. 21. Nene 9. Omoigui C. 12. Pinan A. 8. Ruiz Fer

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Zuniga L. ⚽,
19', 🟨,
20', 2 - 0, Garcia G. (Pen),
23', 🟨,
36', Sangare L. ↓, Ruiz Fer ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Alba D. ↓, Omoigui C. ↑,
49', Munoz V. 🟨,
65', 3 - 0, Munoz V. ⚽,
71', Andres C. ↓, Antonio David ↑,
71', Garcia G. ↓, Palacios C. ↑,
73', Manu ↓, Abdellah D. ↑,
74', Fortuny P. ↓, Alonso B. ↑,
82', 4 - 0, Zuniga L. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 2.

Real Madrid Castilla has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Fuenlabrada is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Real Madrid Castilla is the team to beat.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:16. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Madrid Castilla won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.6:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
10.05.25	Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0 ✺
04.05.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Marbella	3:2 ✺
27.04.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Ceuta	0:1 ✺
20.04.25	Recreativo Huelva - Real Madrid Castilla	1:4 ✺
12.04.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Atlético Madrid B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TWLWT
- CF Fuenlabrada
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
11.05.25	Fuenlabrada - Ceuta	1:2 ✺
04.05.25	Atlético Madrid B - Fuenlabrada	2:0 ✺
27.04.25	Ibiza - Fuenlabrada	2:1 ✺
20.04.25	Fuenlabrada - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Alcoyano - Fuenlabrada	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
24.11.24	Fuenlabrada - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2
Club Friendly
12.08.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Fuenlabrada	1:0
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
20.05.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Fuenlabrada	0:0
18.12.22	Fuenlabrada - Real Madrid Castilla	1:2
Club Friendly
17.08.22	Real Madrid Castilla - Fuenlabrada	3:4
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
17.03.19	Fuenlabrada - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0
27.10.18	Real Madrid Castilla - Fuenlabrada	0:1

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