Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 19

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Enrique Roca (Murcia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	A Punt, Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Real Murcia		Hércules

	1	X	2
	1.83	3	4.33
	1.9	3.05	4.15
	2.01	2.98	4.14	Watch
	1.85	2.88	4.2
	1.86	3.05	4.29
	1.8	3.1	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.83)	3.01 ↑ (3)	4.24 ↓ (4.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Murcia
48.4%

Draw
30.2%

Hércules
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

30%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

32.7%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Murcia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Hércules has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Murcia than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Murcia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hércules than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Real Murcia - Hércules Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gazzaniga G. (G) 18. Vicente D. 6. Gonzalez A. 26. Perez H. 3. Romero C. 21. Djanbou S. 10. Gomez I. 9. Benito P. A. P. 20. Zenitagoia E. 11. Bustos A. 23. Bosilj D.	1. Trujillo Hernandez A. C. (G) 2. Vazquez S. 4. Rentero J. 20. Sotillos A. 24. Jimenez J. 10. Espinosa N. 8. Mangada C. 37. Puch Herrantz M. 14. Ben Hamed N. 11. Ropero U. 19. Sol F.
Substitutes
16. Antonio David 5. Jaso Zunzarren A. 30. Joao Pedro Palmberg 19. Jorquera Romero J. 22. Juan Carlos 35. Kajaia S. (G) 14. Leon P. 4. Lopez A. 2. Mier J. 8. Schalk A.	3. Alvarez A. 22. Aranda A. 13. Blazic A. (G) 15. Cantero R. 6. Colomina R. 17. De Leon J. 23. de Palmas R. 28. Galvan J. 16. Gomes V. 21. Retu 18. Rojas C. 9. Slavy

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Bustos A. ⚽,
26', Mangada C. 🟨,
30', Rentero J. 🟨,
39', Perez H. ↓, Jaso Zunzarren A. ↑,
45', Ropero U. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Mangada C. ↓, Colomina R. ↑,
54', Bustos A. ↓, Juan Carlos ↑,
61', Colomina R. 🟨,
69', Ropero U. ↓, Rojas C. ↑,
69', Espinosa N. ↓, De Leon J. ↑,
73', Bosilj D. ↓, Jorquera Romero J. ↑,
73', Zenitagoia E. ↓, Antonio David ↑,
81', Ben Hamed N. ↓, Aranda A. ↑,
81', Puch Herrantz M. ↓, Slavy ↑,
88', 1 - 1, Vazquez S. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Murcia won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Murcia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Murcia is a strong favorite.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Murcia won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 16:25. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Murcia won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 0.8:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Murcia	6	4	0	2	10:7	3	12
7	Hercules	6	3	1	2	5:5	0	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Murcia
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
04.01.26	Atlético Sanluqueño - Real Murcia	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
30.12.25	UCAM Murcia - Real Murcia	3:2 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
21.12.25	Real Murcia - CE Europa	3:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
18.12.25	Real Murcia - Betis	0:2 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
13.12.25	Real Murcia - Sabadell	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLWLL
- Hércules CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
03.01.26	Hércules - Sabadell	1:3 ✺
20.12.25	Marbella - Hércules	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Atlético Sanluqueño - Hércules	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Hércules - Juventud de Torremolinos	2:1 ✺
30.11.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Hércules	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
02.08.25	Hércules - Real Murcia	1:0
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
18.01.25	Real Murcia - Hércules	1:0
21.09.24	Hércules - Real Murcia	2:0
Club Friendly
17.08.24	Hércules - Real Murcia	2:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
10.04.22	Real Murcia - Hércules	1:1
21.11.21	Hércules - Real Murcia	3:0
Club Friendly
18.08.21	Real Murcia - Hércules	0:1

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