Match Info

Primera B - Round 38

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Municipal de Pilar-Carlos Barraza (Buenos Aires)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Real Pilar		Villa Dálmine

	1	X	2
	2.37	2.70	3.00
	2.45	2.62	3	Watch
	2.74	2.78	2.96
	2.5	2.69	3.12	Watch
	2.7	2.55	2.9
	2.43	2.91	3.18
	2.44	2.65	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.35)	2.7 ↓ (2.74)	3.02 ↓ (3.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Pilar
36.2%

Draw
33.7%

Villa Dálmine
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

33%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

32.4%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Pilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Villa Dálmine has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Pilar than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villa Dálmine than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Real Pilar - Villa Dálmine Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Perafan P. (G) 6. Abre F. 2. Basualdo N. 11. Crocco M. (C) 3. Franco E. 4. Leguiza D. 8. Mancini V. 7. Martin B. 5. Pansardi F. 9. Rodriguez E. 10. Vergara D.	1. Rojas J. (G) 6. Agorreca N. 2. Broggi C. 4. Gamba L. 17. Gargiulo V. 8. Garzino F. 19. Morales M. 3. Nievas A. 11. Oro P. 10. Prim S. 7. Solis M.
Substitutes
13. Achucarro D. 19. Aguilar R. 18. Cesar J. 20. Delari T. 15. Escurra N. 17. Gonzalez D. 14. Isola G. 12. Sanchez S. (G) 16. Smith I.	14. Britos M. 16. Carlucci V. 12. Friedrich G. (G) 5. Nizzo M. 20. Paez M. 15. Ramon E. 18. Resquin G. 9. Torres G. 13. Zurita M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Vergara D. ⚽,
16', Agorreca N. 🟨,
23', 2 - 0, Broggi C. (Own goal),
35', Pansardi F. 🟨,
45', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gargiulo V. ↓, Paez M. ↑,
46', Morales M. ↓, Ramon E. ↑,
61', Mancini V. ↓, Cesar J. ↑,
71', Garzino F. 🟨,
74', Paez M. 🟨,
75', Vergara D. ↓, Achucarro D. ↑,
77', Garzino F. ↓, Torres G. ↑,
80', Ramon E. 🟨,
82', Gamba L. 🟨,

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 7th in the Promotion - Primera B Promotion - Playoffs and 4th in the Promotion - Primera B Promotion - Playoffs).

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Real Pilar could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Real Pilar has recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:2 (averaging 0.7:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Real Pilar against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 0:0 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Villa Dalmine	38	17	13	8	38:23	15	64
7	Real Pilar	38	17	10	11	42:38	4	61

Last Results with these Odds

Real Pilar - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 38.54%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Villa Dálmine - the odds 3.18 are the expected chance of winning is 28.42%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Pilar FC
Argentinian Primera B
25.09.26	Excursionistas - Real Pilar	3:0 ✺
19.09.26	Real Pilar - Arsenal Sarandí	2:1 ✺
11.09.26	Argentino de Merlo - Real Pilar	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	Real Pilar - Talleres de Remedios de Escalada	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Deportivo Laferrere - Real Pilar	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWWLT
- Villa Dálmine
Argentinian Primera B
27.09.26	Villa Dálmine - UAI Urquiza	0:0 ✺
19.09.26	Villa Dálmine - Ituzaingó	3:1 ✺
12.09.26	Excursionistas - Villa Dálmine	3:0 ✺
05.09.26	Villa Dálmine - Arsenal Sarandí	0:1 ✺
30.08.26	Argentino de Merlo - Villa Dálmine	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera B
23.05.26	Villa Dálmine - Real Pilar	1:1
13.07.25	Villa Dálmine - Real Pilar	1:1
22.02.25	Real Pilar - Villa Dálmine	0:0

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