Match Info

LaLiga - Round 6

Date: 24 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Reale Arena (San Sebastian)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 6
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
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Brazil	Disney+
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, TSN+
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Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
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France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
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Peru	Disney+
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Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
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Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-america	ESPN 4 South
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Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Switzerland	Blue Sport 11, Blue Sport 11
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 9
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV 15


	Real Sociedad		Mallorca

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.5	5	Watch
	1.78	3.55	4.7	Watch
	1.79	3.59	5.3
	1.87	2.79	5.85	Watch
	1.78	3.61	5.22	Watch
	1.78	3.65	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.76)	3.45 ↓ (3.53)	5.18 ↑ (4.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Sociedad
53.6%

Draw
27.9%

Mallorca
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

26.8%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

26.7%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Sociedad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Mallorca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Sociedad than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mallorca than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.8%	12.1%	9.1%

Real Sociedad - Mallorca Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Real Sociedad (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Real Sociedad will win (26 of 33 users predict this - 78.79%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.84% – 92.74%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Sociedad will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Sociedad (votes: 11 - 84.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Remiro A. (G) 2. Aramburu J. 16. Caleta-Car D. 5. Zubeldia I. 17. Gomez S. 18. Soler C. 4. Gorrotxategi J. 23. Mendez B. 14. Kubo T. 10. Oyarzabal M. (C) 7. Barrenetxea A.	1. Roman L. (G) 23. Maffeo P. 27. Lopez D. 24. Valjent M. 21. Raillo A. (C) 3. Lato T. 18. Joseph M. 6. Sanchez A. 5. Mascarell O. 20. Torre P. 7. Muriqi V.
Substitutes
22. Goti Lopez M. 11. Guedes G. 19. Karrikaburu J. 6. Lebarbier A. 28. Marin P. 13. Marrero U. (G) 3. Munoz A. 20. Odriozola A. 12. Sadiq U. 24. Sucic L. 8. Turrientes B. 21. Zakharyan A.	11. Asano T. 13. Bergstrom L. (G) 10. Darder S. 30. Domenech M. 19. Llabres J. 22. Mojica J. 2. Morey Bauza M. 8. Morlanes M. 14. Olaizola J. 25. Pichu Cuellar (G) 9. Prats A. 12. Samu Costa
Coaches
Francisco S.	Arrasate J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Maffeo P. 🟨,
34', Mendez B. 🟨,
34', Sanchez A. 🟨,
44', Mascarell O. ↓, Samu Costa ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', 1 - 0, Oyarzabal M. ⚽, Barrenetxea A. (A),
62', Lopez D. ↓, Domenech M. ↑,
63', Sanchez A. ↓, Darder S. ↑,
64', Soler C. ↓, Turrientes B. ↑,
74', Gomez S. ↓, Munoz A. ↑,
75', Mendez B. ↓, Marin P. ↑,
79', Lato T. ↓, Mojica J. ↑,
79', Maffeo P. ↓, Morey Bauza M. ↑,
85', Kubo T. ↓, Guedes G. ↑,
85', Barrenetxea A. ↓, Sadiq U. ↑,
86', Turrientes B. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Sociedad won 1.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Mallorca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Real Sociedad is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Real Sociedad: Elustondo A. (Contusion) Herrera Y. (Hamstring Injury) Martin J. (International duty) Oskarsson O. (Thigh Injury) Ruperez I. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Mallorca: Kumbulla M. (Injury) Rodriguez D. (Suspended) Virgili J. (International duty)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Real Sociedad won 10 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:8. (average 1.1:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Sociedad won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:4. (average 1.3:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Sociedad
Spanish LaLiga
19.09.25	Betis - Real Sociedad	3:1 ✺
13.09.25	Real Sociedad - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	Real Oviedo - Real Sociedad	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Real Sociedad - Espanyol	2:2 ✺
16.08.25	Valencia - Real Sociedad	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLTT
- RCD Mallorca
Spanish LaLiga
21.09.25	Mallorca - Atlético Madrid	1:1 ✺
15.09.25	Espanyol - Mallorca	3:2 ✺
30.08.25	Real Madrid - Mallorca	2:1 ✺
23.08.25	Mallorca - Celta de Vigo	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Mallorca - Barcelona	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
12.04.25	Real Sociedad - Mallorca	0:2
17.09.24	Mallorca - Real Sociedad	1:0
Spanish Copa del Rey
27.02.24	Real Sociedad - Mallorca	1:2 penalties
Spanish LaLiga
18.02.24	Mallorca - Real Sociedad	1:2
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.02.24	Mallorca - Real Sociedad	0:0
Spanish LaLiga
21.10.23	Real Sociedad - Mallorca	1:0
12.03.23	Mallorca - Real Sociedad	1:1

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