Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 24 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio IV Centenario (Tarija)

Referee: Lopez J. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Brazil	ESPN 3


	Real Tomayapo		Belgrano

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.6	1.73	Watch
	4.6	3.5	1.73
	4.75	3.5	1.75	Watch
	5.22	3.6	1.77
	5.22	3.6	1.71
	4.6	3.4	1.7	Watch
	4.89	3.6	1.72	Watch
	5	3.5	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.94 ↑ (3.88)	3.54 ↑ (3.4)	1.72 ↓ (1.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Tomayapo
19%

Draw
26.5%

Belgrano
54.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.1%

27.5%

48.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.7%

27.1%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Tomayapo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Tomayapo's form might have worsened.

Belgrano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Belgrano's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Tomayapo than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belgrano than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Belgrano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.7%	0%	81.2%

Real Tomayapo - Belgrano Predictions

Users Predictions: Belgrano will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Galindo P. (G) 20. Justiniano L. 19. Padilha Hallysson 2. Rioja J. (C) 24. Cantillo A. 15. Orellana J. 29. Graneros A. 22. Alcaraz A. 6. Villamil S. 21. Noble M. 12. Tomianovic M.	25. Losada N. (G) 4. Barinaga J. 13. Meriano N. 37. Troilo M. 34. Heredia G. 11. Reyna B. 16. Rolon E. 45. Baldi A. 26. Lencioni F. 15. Garcia M. 29. Jara F.
Substitutes
25. Arancibia A. (G) 7. Aviles M. 31. Castellon V. 38. Cuiza S. 11. Hernandez M. 26. Lima R. 4. Maldonado D. 33. Mamani K. 10. Maygua L. 9. Orozco Quiroga J. N. 17. Ortega J. 30. Villamil J.	47. Bernabeu L. 19. Chavarria P. 28. Daniele M. (G) 35. Facello F. 24. Gonzalez F. 5. Longo S. 2. Maffini G. 10. Marin M. 14. Palavecino M. 23. Quignon F. 43. Rami F. 32. Rojas A.
Coaches
Aran C.	Real J. C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Lencioni F. ⚽, Reyna B. (A),
25', Galindo P. 🟨,
25', Losada N. 🟨,
28', Meriano N. 🟥,
33', Garcia M. ↓, Maffini G. ↑,
36', Cantillo A. ↓, Ortega J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Alcaraz A. ↓, Lima R. ↑,
46', Justiniano L. ↓, Cuiza S. ↑,
46', Reyna B. ↓, Longo S. ↑,
64', Barinaga J. ↓, Facello F. ↑,
71', Villamil S. ↓, Hernandez M. ↑,
72', Lencioni F. ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
73', Rolon E. ↓, Marin M. ↑,
74', Heredia G. 🟨,
77', Tomianovic M. ↓, Orozco Quiroga J. N. ↑,
80', Padilha Hallysson 🟨,
83', 0 - 2, Marin M. ⚽,

Preview

Two teams are playing changeable.

Tomayapo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Belgrano is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Tomayapo
Copa Sudamericana
10.04.24	Internacional RS - Real Tomayapo	0:0 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
07.04.24	Real Tomayapo - Real Santa Cruz	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.04.24	Real Tomayapo - Delfín	0:2 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
30.03.24	San Antonio Bulo Bulo - Real Tomayapo	3:0 ✺
13.03.24	Real Tomayapo - The Strongest	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 40.8 TWLLW
- Belgrano de Cordoba
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
16.04.24	Belgrano - Racing	0:4 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
11.04.24	Delfín - Belgrano	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
06.04.24	Unión Santa Fe - Belgrano	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
02.04.24	Belgrano - Internacional RS	0:0 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
29.03.24	Tigre - Belgrano	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LTWTW

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