Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 25

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Bauer (Paris - Saint-Ouen)

Referee: Bouille T. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 7, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
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Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
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Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2, Oneplay
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Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Japan	DAZN Japan
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Slovakia	Nova Sport 2, Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Red Star		Le Mans

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3	Watch
	2.45	3	2.95
	2.25	3.05	3.2	Watch
	2.31	3.25	3.35
	2.19	3.22	3.37	Watch
	2.2	3	3.2
	2.29	3.3	3.2	Watch
	2.65	3.1	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.64)	3.13 ↑ (3.08)	3.12 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Red Star
40.3%

Draw
29.8%

Le Mans
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

30.1%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

29.1%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Red Star has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Red Star's performance.

Le Mans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Star than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Red Star that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Le Mans than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Le Mans could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Red Star - Le Mans Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Red Star will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Le Mans will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Red Star: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Poussin G. (G) 20. Durivaux D. 24. Lemonnier P. 27. Danger B. 22. Sylla D. 98. Hachem R. (C) 4. Pierret B. 11. Cisse K. 25. Trani G. 91. Cabral K. 7. Durand D.	98. Kocik N. (G) 18. Buades L. 31. Boisse N. 17. Yohou S. 3. Cossier I. 22. Calodat L. 11. Bourabaa A. 29. Bretelle L. 6. Quarshie E. (C) 25. Gueye D. 28. Colas E.
Substitutes
9. Ba P. M. 29. Benali H. 1. Beunardeau Q. (G) 23. Ikanga J. 12. Kany V. 10. Khaoui S. E. 2. Magnin T.	32. Hammoudi I. 20. Harhouz W. 1. Hatfout E. (G) 9. Rabillard A. 12. Ribelin A. 27. Rossignol M. 5. Voyer H.
Coaches
Poirier G.	Videira P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Cossier I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Pierret B. 🟨,
56', Bourabaa A. 🟨,
58', Cossier I. ↓, Voyer H. ↑,
58', Gueye D. ↓, Harhouz W. ↑,
64', Bourabaa A. ↓, Rossignol M. ↑,
68', Trani G. ↓, Khaoui S. E. ↑,
68', Cabral K. ↓, Ba P. M. ↑,
75', Danger B. 🟨,
78', Cisse K. ↓, Magnin T. ↑,
78', Sylla D. ↓, Ikanga J. ↑,
83', Colas E. ↓, Rabillard A. ↑,
83', Bretelle L. ↓, Hammoudi I. ↑,
83', Durand D. ↓, Benali H. ↑,
89', Rossignol M. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Red Star won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Red Star may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Red Star: Doucoure R. (Knee Injury) Haag G. (Yellow Cards) Halifa I. (Inactive) Hassen M. (Inactive) Huard M. (Yellow Cards) Ikanga J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Le Mans: Eyoum T. (Injury) Gomes M. (Ankle Injury) Lauray A. (Yellow Cards) Quarshie E. (Injury) Vercruysse J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Red Star won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Red Star won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Outrights of French Ligue 2 for now

Red Star: 4.92%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Red Star	7	4	2	1	9:7	2	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Red Star FC 93
French Ligue 2
20.02.26	Annecy - Red Star	2:1 ✺
13.02.26	Red Star - Nancy	2:1 ✺
06.02.26	Red Star - Pau	0:3 ✺
30.01.26	Rodez - Red Star	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Red Star - Boulogne	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWLTT
- Le Mans FC
French Ligue 2
23.02.26	Le Mans - Guingamp	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Montpellier - Le Mans	4:2 ✺
07.02.26	Le Mans - Laval	1:1 ✺
Coupe De France
03.02.26	Reims - Le Mans	3:0 ✺
French Ligue 2
31.01.26	Troyes - Le Mans	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
08.11.25	Le Mans - Red Star	0:0
French Ligue 3
23.02.24	Red Star - Le Mans	4:1
15.09.23	Le Mans - Red Star	1:2
Club Friendly
04.08.23	Le Mans - Red Star	1:1
French Ligue 3
10.02.23	Red Star - Le Mans	0:0
05.09.22	Le Mans - Red Star	0:0
25.03.22	Le Mans - Red Star	1:1

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