Match Info

Ligue 1 - Relegation - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Stade Bauer (Paris - Saint-Ouen)

Where to Watch on TV:


Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Brazil	Caze TV
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Sports 1, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Italy	Ligue 1+
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Romania	Voyo
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovakia	Nova Sport 2
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Turkey	beIN Connect
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+


	Red Star		Rodez

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.2	3.1	Watch
	2.32	3.25	2.98	Watch
	2.37	3.4	3.14
	2.33	3.2	3.11	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3
	2.38	3.38	3.19	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (1.78)	3.27 ↓ (3.68)	3.09 ↓ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Red Star
40.7%

Draw
28.8%

Rodez
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.7%

25%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.3%

24.8%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Red Star has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Red Star's form might have worsened.

Rodez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rodez's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Red Star than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Red Star, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rodez than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rodez, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.7%	33.3%	20%

Red Star - Rodez Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Red Star will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Rodez will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Red Star: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Red Star (2.08) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Rodez (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Red Star (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Rodez (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Poussin G. (G) 20. Durivaux D. 5. Escartin J. 3. Huard M. 22. Sylla D. 27. Danger B. 4. Pierret B. 98. Hachem R. (C) 7. Durand D. 91. Cabral K. 23. Ikanga J.	1. Braat Q. (G) 25. Galves N. 24. Laurent L. 4. Magnin M. 3. Lipinski R. (C) 15. Jean-Lambert E. 6. Mendes J. 27. Trouillet A. 22. Joly O. 18. Balde I. 11. Arconte T.
Substitutes
9. Ba P. M. 29. Benali H. 1. Beunardeau Q. (G) 11. Cisse K. 81. Haag G. 10. Khaoui S. E. 2. Magnin T.	26. Benchamma S. 13. Issanchou Roubiou C. 16. Margueron L. (G) 9. Nagera K. 20. Ponti R. 28. Saka M. 8. Younoussa W.
Coaches
Poirier G.	Santini D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 1 - 0, Cabral K. ⚽, Durand D. (A),
29', 1 - 1, Balde I. ⚽, Arconte T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
61', 2 - 1, Escartin J. ⚽, Cabral K. (A),
62', Huard M. ↓, Haag G. ↑,
62', Ikanga J. ↓, Benali H. ↑,
64', Pierret B. 🟨,
66', Jean-Lambert E. ↓, Ponti R. ↑,
66', Joly O. ↓, Younoussa W. ↑,
67', 2 - 2, Magnin M. ⚽, Galves N. (A),
69', 2 - 3, Younoussa W. ⚽,
75', Cabral K. ↓, Magnin T. ↑,
76', Sylla D. ↓, Khaoui S. E. ↑,
76', Hachem R. ↓, Ba P. M. ↑,
76', Younoussa W. 🟨,
85', Balde I. ↓, Nagera K. ↑,
86', Trouillet A. ↓, Saka M. ↑,
89', Danger B. 🟨,
90', Benali H. 🟨,
90+2', Mendes J. ↓, Benchamma S. ↑,
90+6', Haag G. 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Red Star won 2.

Red Star is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Rodez is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Red Star is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Red Star: Cisse K. (Inactive) Doucoure R. (Knee Injury) Lemonnier P. (Inactive)

There will not play in Rodez: Achi M. (Inactive) Tebily H. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Rodez: Corredor M. (Inactive)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Red Star won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Red Star won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Red Star FC 93
French Ligue 2
09.05.26	Red Star - Montpellier	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Amiens - Red Star	1:3 ✺
24.04.26	Red Star - Guingamp	3:2 ✺
18.04.26	Reims - Red Star	3:2 ✺
11.04.26	Red Star - Bastia	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TWWLW
- Rodez AF
French Ligue 2
09.05.26	Annecy - Rodez	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Rodez - Saint-Étienne	2:1 ✺
24.04.26	Laval - Rodez	0:0 ✺
17.04.26	Rodez - Amiens	3:2 ✺
13.04.26	Rodez - Troyes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.1 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
30.01.26	Rodez - Red Star	1:1
04.10.25	Red Star - Rodez	1:1
28.03.25	Red Star - Rodez	1:1
03.01.25	Rodez - Red Star	0:2
French Ligue 3
06.04.18	Rodez - Red Star	1:2
17.11.17	Red Star - Rodez	1:0

Upcoming Matches