Match Info

USL League One

Date: 3 July 2026, Friday

Location: City Stadium (Richmond, VA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Canada	fubo Sports Network
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Richmond Kickers		Sarasota Paradise

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.55	3.25	2.35
	2.88	3.3	2.18
	3	3.53	2.24
	2.94	3.44	2.28	Watch
	2.95	3.45	2.13
	2.95	3.36	2.15	Watch
	2.9	3.35	2.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.14)	3.38 ↑ (3.3)	2.22 ↓ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Richmond Kickers
31.7%

Draw
27%

Sarasota Paradise
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

27.3%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

26.6%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Richmond Kickers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Richmond Kickers's form might have worsened.

Sarasota Paradise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sarasota Paradise's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Richmond Kickers than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Richmond Kickers, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarasota Paradise than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sarasota Paradise, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Richmond Kickers - Sarasota Paradise Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Richmond Kickers will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Sarasota Paradise will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fillion Y. (G) 3. Anderson H. 4. Layton S. 22. Vinberg S. 34. Howell B. 11. Pannholzer T. 12. O'Malley O. 2. Barnathan D. (C) 99. Moore D. 9. Kirkland J. 23. Freeman T.	1. Sutton A. (G) 14. Pettersen J. 4. Watters D. (C) 5. Sogaard A. 36. Rosa A. 7. Bryant E. 27. O'Dwyer C. 8. Walker A. 17. Bolanos J. 11. Karani S. 32. Terzaghi E.
Substitutes
18. Amer A. 32. Bolduc M. 44. Gallegos A. 7. Johnson L. 26. Murana M. 41. Richman A. 35. Sneddon J. (G) 13. Wintsch A. (G)	23. Amedeka R. (G) 18. Krueger B. 19. McLaughlin G. 16. Rodriguez A. 46. Roed S. 6. Stretch C. 3. Valentine R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Karani S. ↓, McLaughlin G. ↑,
60', Bryant E. 🟨,
65', O'Malley O. ↓, Amer A. ↑,
65', Freeman T. ↓, Bolduc M. ↑,
65', Kirkland J. ↓, Johnson L. ↑,
67', Bryant E. ↓, Roed S. ↑,
72', Anderson H. ↓, Murana M. ↑,
77', Sogaard A. ↓, Valentine R. ↑,
77', Walker A. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
78', Pettersen J. ↓, Stretch C. ↑,
81', McLaughlin G. 🟨,
82', Pannholzer T. ↓, Richman A. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 12).

Richmond Kickers has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Sarasota Paradise has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sarasota Paradise may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Richmond Kickers has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

We predict that Sarasota Paradise will win today's game, with odds of 2.35.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	9	6	13	39:43	-4	33
17	Richmond Kickers	29	6	5	18	30:60	-30	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Richmond Kickers
USL League One
24.06.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - Richmond Kickers	5:1 ✺
20.06.26	Richmond Kickers - Fort Wayne	0:2 ✺
13.06.26	Corpus Christi - Richmond Kickers	1:0 ✺
10.06.26	Boise - Richmond Kickers	2:1 ✺
USL Cup
06.06.26	Loudoun United - Richmond Kickers	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Sarasota Paradise
USL League One
20.06.26	Corpus Christi - Sarasota Paradise	4:1 ✺
13.06.26	Sarasota Paradise - Union Omaha	2:0 ✺
10.06.26	AV Alta - Sarasota Paradise	3:1 ✺
USL Cup
06.06.26	Naples - Sarasota Paradise	0:2 ✺
USL League One
30.05.26	Sarasota Paradise - New York Cosmos	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LWLWW

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