Match Info

USL League One

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Premier Sports Campus (Lakewood Ranch, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Sarasota Paradise		New York Cosmos

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.65	3.65	4.25
	1.68	3.78	4.27
	1.72	3.83	4.43	Watch
	1.67	3.4	4.2
	1.65	3.74	4.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.62)	3.68 ↓ (3.71)	4.31 ↓ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarasota Paradise
54.2%

Draw
24.7%

New York Cosmos
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

24.3%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.6%

23.1%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarasota Paradise has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

New York Cosmos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarasota Paradise than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New York Cosmos than the current prediction. (-2%)

Sarasota Paradise - New York Cosmos Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Amedeka R. (G) 3. Valentine R. 4. Watters D. (C) 5. Sogaard A. 36. Rosa A. 7. Bryant E. 27. O'Dwyer C. 8. Walker A. 17. Bolanos J. 46. Roed S. 19. McLaughlin G.	26. Garcia J. (G) 17. Galazzini D. 25. Chavez J. 6. Holt A. 5. Cabrera N. 33. Sidoel D. 19. Jawneh L. 8. Spengler A. 20. Mendonca N. 11. Zielonka N. 13. Guenzatti S. (C)
Substitutes
22. Backstrand H. 32. Bolduc M. 50. Brulinski D. 11. Karani S. 14. Pettersen J. 16. Rodriguez A. 52. Sanchez K. 1. Sutton A. (G) 20. Tainio M.	7. Guarino L. 23. Materazzi D. 28. Milovanov J. 2. Morabito M. 24. Noecker W. 14. Puentes A. 30. Stephani T. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Spengler A. 🟨,
22', Valentine R. 🟨,
42', Galazzini D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Bryant E. ↓, Bolduc M. ↑,
46', Valentine R. ↓, Pettersen J. ↑,
50', 0 - 1, Spengler A. ⚽, Zielonka N. (A),
57', Guenzatti S. 🟨,
61', Roed S. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
62', Watters D. 🟨,
64', Cabrera N. ↓, Morabito M. ↑,
64', Zielonka N. ↓, Puentes A. ↑,
68', 1 - 1, Bolduc M. ⚽, Rosa A. (A),
69', Jawneh L. ↓, Milovanov J. ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Rosa A. ⚽,
80', McLaughlin G. ↓, Karani S. ↑,
81', Mendonca N. ↓, Guarino L. ↑,
81', Galazzini D. ↓, Noecker W. ↑,
84', Amedeka R. 🟨,
88', Bolanos J. ↓, Brulinski D. ↑,
90', Chavez J. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 13 and 16).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Sarasota Paradise may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sarasota Paradise is the team to beat.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	9	6	13	39:43	-4	33
15	New York Cosmos	28	7	4	17	36:56	-20	25

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarasota Paradise
USL League One
27.05.26	Boise - Sarasota Paradise	0:2 ✺
24.05.26	Spokane Velocity - Sarasota Paradise	1:0 ✺
16.05.26	Sarasota Paradise - AV Alta	1:2 ✺
USL Cup
13.05.26	Sarasota Paradise - Sporting Jacksonville	0:2 ✺
USL League One
09.05.26	Chattanooga Red Wolves - Sarasota Paradise	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WLLLL
- New York Cosmos
USL League One
27.05.26	New York Cosmos - Union Omaha	1:2 ✺
23.05.26	AV Alta - New York Cosmos	4:0 ✺
USL Cup
15.05.26	Westchester SC - New York Cosmos	2:3 ✺
USL League One
02.05.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - New York Cosmos	3:1 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	New York Cosmos - Brooklyn	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLWLL

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