Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Samsung völlurinn (Gardabaer)

Referee: Johnson O. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Iceland	SÝN Sport Ísland 2
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Stjarnan		Ilves

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.80	2.70	Watch
	2.20	3.70	2.70
	2.32	3.65	2.65	Watch
	2.23	4.22	2.76
	2.40	3.97	2.49	Watch
	2.16	4.15	2.65
	2.30	4.01	2.71	Watch
	2.21	3.85	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.05)	3.92 ↑ (3.54)	2.68 ↓ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stjarnan
41.5%

Draw
23.7%

Ilves
34.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

25.5%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

25.3%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stjarnan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stjarnan than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.6%	15.8%	52.6%

Stjarnan - Ilves Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Stjarnan will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). Ilves will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ilves: 32.6% – 78.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Olafsson A. (G) 32. Orvarsson O. 6. Ingimarsson S. T. 3. Kjeldsen G. 4. Thorisson T. 23. Waren B. 18. Nokkvason G. 8. Gunnarsson J. 11. Ingason B. 22. Atlason E. (C) 7. Eggertsson O.	12. Krkalic F. (G) 4. Pettersson O. 5. Vaisanen S. (C) 16. Miettunen T. 3. Rale M. 7. Veteli J. 30. Kanga J. 14. Popovitch A. 13. Wallius K. 9. Hytonen T. 28. Kilo J.
Substitutes
25. Alexandersson C. 35. Asmundsson B. 83. Beic D. (G) 1. Bergmann Gylfason D. (G) 99. Bjarnason A. 29. Hauksson A. 14. Hauksson B. 24. Jonsson S. 5. Kristjansson G. 19. Leifsson A. 10. Matthiasson D. 94. Vilhjalmsson A.	15. Ala-Myllymaki L. 19. Bamba G. 17. Baranov S. 24. Kumpu V. 31. Leislahti R. (G) 22. Multala O. 10. Riski Ro. 20. Tiitinen O. 1. Virtanen O. (G)
Coaches
Hauksson J.	Speranza C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Kilo J. ↓, Riski Ro. ↑,
59', Veteli J. ↓, Multala O. ↑,
64', Atlason E. 🟨,
66', Thorisson T. ↓, Hauksson B. ↑,
70', Pettersson O. ↓, Bamba G. ↑,
71', Vaisanen S. ↓, Kumpu V. ↑,
81', Popovitch A. 🟨,
83', Waren B. ↓, Matthiasson D. ↑,
83', Eggertsson O. ↓, Vilhjalmsson A. ↑,
84', 1 - 0, Nokkvason G. ⚽,
85', Rale M. ↓, Ala-Myllymaki L. ↑,
90+1', Matthiasson D. 🟨,
90+5', Nokkvason G. ↓, Hauksson A. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Ilves may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ilves has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UMF Stjarnan
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
19.07.26	KR Reykjavík - Stjarnan	5:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	Víkingur Gøta - Stjarnan	2:2 ✺
09.07.26	Stjarnan - Víkingur Gøta	3:1 ✺
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
03.07.26	FH Hafnarfjordur - Stjarnan	2:2 ✺
28.06.26	Stjarnan - KA Akureyri	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LTWTW
- FC Ilves
Finnish Veikkausliiga
20.07.26	TPS - Ilves	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	Ilves - Differdange 03	3:1 ✺
08.07.26	Differdange 03 - Ilves	0:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
04.07.26	FF Jaro - Ilves	2:1 ✺
Finnish Cup
01.07.26	HJK - Ilves	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWTLL

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