Match Info

Date: 12 March 2022, Saturday


	Rio Ave		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.6	5
	1.6	3.6	4.8
	1.6	3.65	4.9
	1.6	3.55	5.4
	1.61	3.94	6.17
	1.61	3.3	5.25
	1.6	3.74	5.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.67)	3.63 ↑ (3.44)	5.28 ↑ (4.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Ave
57.4%

Draw
25.3%

Penafiel
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

26.6%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

16.5%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Ave has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (-23.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rio Ave that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+12.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Penafiel could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Rio Ave - Penafiel Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Promotion) and 8).

Rio Ave is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Penafiel is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Rio Ave is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Rio Ave won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Rio Ave won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Ave FC
Portuguese Liga 2
07.03.22	Vilafranquense - Rio Ave	1:2 ✺
27.02.22	Rio Ave - Porto B	1:0 ✺
20.02.22	Feirense - Rio Ave	0:0 ✺
14.02.22	Rio Ave - Estrela da Amadora	1:0 ✺
10.02.22	Chaves - Rio Ave	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWTWL
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
06.03.22	Penafiel - Chaves	2:1 ✺
26.02.22	Mafra - Penafiel	1:1 ✺
20.02.22	Penafiel - Covilhã	1:1 ✺
13.02.22	Nacional - Penafiel	3:0 ✺
07.02.22	Penafiel - Trofense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
23.10.21	Penafiel - Rio Ave	1:1
Liga Portugal
15.03.15	Penafiel - Rio Ave	0:2
27.10.14	Rio Ave - Penafiel	3:2

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