Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 23

Date: 24 February 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio da Madeira (Funchal)

Referee: Pereira C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV3


	Nacional		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.5	5
	1.71	3.3	4.2
	1.75	3.6	4.5	Watch
	1.8	3.5	4.5
	1.74	3.82	5.04
	1.65	3.5	4.2
	1.56	4.27	5.33
	1.74	3.4	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.79)	3.61 ↑ (3.6)	4.63 ↑ (4.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
54.4%

Draw
25.6%

Penafiel
20%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.4%

26.1%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

25.6%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Nacional - Penafiel Predictions

Users Predictions: Nacional will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
37. Lucas Franca (G) 2. Aurelio J. (C) 4. Paulo Vitor 40. Ulisses 5. Jose Gomes 8. Danilovic V. 10. Esteves L. 28. Carlos Daniel 77. Gustavo 11. Witi 9. Ramirez J.	1. Silva P. (G) 4. Miguel J. (C) 44. Pereira R. 26. Brito D. 68. Maga 8. Reko 20. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 35. Cardoso F. 15. Silva J. 11. Adilio 7. Firmino H.
Substitutes
71. Diga 99. Dudu 1. Encarnacao R. (G) 20. Jota Garces 7. Macedo R. 21. Marakis S. 3. Pola J. 18. Sousa A. 55. Sousa A.	21. Batista D. 73. Filipe Ferreira (G) 27. Freitas R. 17. Gabriel Barbosa (Robinho) 5. Pereira B. 13. Pinheiro Edu 30. Silva A. 9. Suker H. 99. Vieira P.
Coaches
Margarido T.	Cristovao H.

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 4 and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nacional won 3.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match Nacional is a favorite.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Nacional won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 19-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Nacional won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Portuguese Liga 2
18.02.24	Feirense - Nacional	2:1 ✺
10.02.24	Nacional - Vilaverdense	3:2 ✺
28.01.24	Nacional - Torreense	2:1 ✺
21.01.24	Marítimo - Nacional	3:1 ✺
15.01.24	Mafra - Nacional	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWWLT
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
18.02.24	Penafiel - Santa Clara	1:2 ✺
10.02.24	Académico de Viseu - Penafiel	1:0 ✺
03.02.24	Penafiel - Oliveirense	1:1 ✺
29.01.24	Penafiel - Feirense	2:1 ✺
21.01.24	Leixões - Penafiel	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
02.10.23	Penafiel - Nacional	1:4
Portuguese League Cup
22.07.23	Nacional - Penafiel	1:0 penalties
Portuguese Liga 2
16.04.23	Penafiel - Nacional	3:0
29.10.22	Nacional - Penafiel	1:1
13.02.22	Nacional - Penafiel	3:0
12.09.21	Penafiel - Nacional	1:0
29.02.20	Penafiel - Nacional	1:1

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