Match Info

USA: USL CHAMPIONSHIP

Date: 20 May 2023, Saturday

Location: H-E-B Park (Edinburg)

Referee: Fierro R. (Usa)


	Rio Grande Valley		Tampa Bay Rowdies

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.2	2.2
	3.15	3.15	2.2
	3	3.18	2.4
	2.91	3.25	2.3	Watch
	3	3.3	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↑ (2.5)	3.22 ↑ (3.1)	2.26 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Grande Valley
30.8%

Draw
28.6%

Tampa Bay Rowdies
40.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

28.7%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

29.7%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Grande Valley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Tampa Bay Rowdies has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Grande Valley than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rio Grande Valley, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tampa Bay Rowdies than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tampa Bay Rowdies, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Rio Grande Valley - Tampa Bay Rowdies Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Rio Grande Valley has the most likely position - 11 (19.51%), project points - 40, currently - 11, a chance of playoffs (34%), a small chance of qtrs (11%), a very small chance of semis (4%), a very small chance of final (2%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Tampa Bay has the most likely position - 2 (18.25%), project points - 52, currently - 14, a good chance of playoffs (94%), a good chance of qtrs (58%), a chance of semis (32%), a chance of final (17%), a small chance of win league (8%).

This event has small quality 16, small importance 14, small match rating 15. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Two teams are playing changeable.

Rio Grande Valley could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Grande Valley FC Toros
USL Championship
13.05.23	San Diego Loyal - Rio Grande Valley	2:3 ✺
05.05.23	Rio Grande Valley - New Mexico United	2:2 ✺
29.04.23	Monterey Bay - Rio Grande Valley	0:0 ✺
22.04.23	Rio Grande Valley - Memphis 901	0:3 ✺
15.04.23	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Rio Grande Valley	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WTTLL
- Tampa Bay Rowdies
USL Championship
13.05.23	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Detroit City	5:1 ✺
06.05.23	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Phoenix Rising	2:0 ✺
29.04.23	Detroit City - Tampa Bay Rowdies	0:1 ✺
23.04.23	San Diego Loyal - Tampa Bay Rowdies	1:0 ✺
12.04.23	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Charleston Battery	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWLL

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