Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 5

Date: 3 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Alberto Grisales (Rionegro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play, Win Sports
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz


	Rionegro Águilas		Fortaleza CEIF

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.88	3.5	Watch
	2.25	2.9	3.2
	2.25	2.98	3.4	Watch
	2.31	2.93	3.46
	1.35	4.08	11.91	Watch
	2.3	2.8	3.3
	2.39	2.85	3.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (2.1)	3.06 ↑ (3.02)	4.59 ↑ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rionegro Águilas
45.8%

Draw
32.5%

Fortaleza CEIF
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

31%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

32.1%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rionegro Águilas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Fortaleza CEIF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rionegro Águilas than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza CEIF than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	57.1%	14.3%

Rionegro Águilas - Fortaleza CEIF Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Rionegro Águilas will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Farinez W. (G) 88. Alfonzo D. 2. Rodriguez S. 29. Lopes H. 32. Mena J. 22. Lozano F. (C) 27. Mancilla H. 11. Yony Gonzalez 33. Oliveros A. 23. Caballero J. 19. Morelo W.	1. Garcia Jordan (G) 4. Marulanda J. 6. Diaz Y. 18. Balanta J. 15. Cuero S. 11. Amaya A. 17. Balanta Carabali K. A. 14. Pico L. (C) 16. Florez K. 8. Ricaurte A. 19. Aristizabal E.
Substitutes
12. Banguera G. (G) 90. Benitez Hernandez R. A. 6. Blanco Betancur C. 5. Hernandez D. 18. Lopez I. 26. Lozano D. 7. Plata A. 37. Ramirez M. 9. Rivaldo J.	33. Arroyo A. 25. Barrera J. 5. Cabezas E. 23. Escorcia L. 35. Martinez J. 27. Mosquera C. 24. Salas J. 12. Santander C. (G) 30. Solis J.
Coaches
de Muner P.	Oliveros S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Garcia Jordan 🟨,
18', 1 - 0, Yony Gonzalez (Pen),
24', Morelo W. 🟨,
45+1', Mancilla H. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Oliveros A. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
53', 1 - 1, Florez K. ⚽, Cuero S. (A),
60', Morelo W. ↓, Benitez Hernandez R. A. ↑,
66', Diaz Y. ↓, Escorcia L. ↑,
66', Ricaurte A. ↓, Solis J. ↑,
73', Amaya A. ↓, Arroyo A. ↑,
73', Marulanda J. 🟨,
75', 1 - 2, Florez K. ⚽, Aristizabal E. (A),
78', Caballero J. ↓, Ramirez M. ↑,
80', Benitez Hernandez R. A. 🟨,
81', Marulanda J. ↓, Cabezas E. ↑,
82', Lozano F. 🟨,
89', Alfonzo D. ↓, Lozano D. ↑,
89', Lozano F. ↓, Rivaldo J. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 2, Garcia Jordan (Own goal),
90+4', Rivaldo J. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )).

Rionegro Águilas is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Fortaleza is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Rionegro Águilas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Rionegro Águilas has had a series of away games.

Rionegro Águilas is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Rionegro Águilas won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Rionegro Águilas won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rionegro Águilas
Colombian Primera A
26.07.25	América de Cali - Rionegro Águilas	2:1 ✺
22.07.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Rionegro Águilas	0:0 ✺
19.07.25	Rionegro Águilas - Junior Barranquilla	2:3 ✺
13.07.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Rionegro Águilas	0:0 ✺
Colombian Copa
15.06.25	Envigado - Rionegro Águilas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LTLTL
- Fortaleza CEIF
Colombian Primera A
27.07.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Alianza Valledupar	2:2 ✺
24.07.25	Deportivo Cali - Fortaleza CEIF	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Once Caldas	2:1 ✺
12.07.25	Envigado - Fortaleza CEIF	0:1 ✺
Colombian Copa
15.06.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Fortaleza CEIF	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
17.02.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Rionegro Águilas	2:1
14.11.24	Fortaleza CEIF - Rionegro Águilas	0:1
28.04.24	Rionegro Águilas - Fortaleza CEIF	1:1

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