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Current Win Probability
River Plate 65%
Draw 20.9%
Defensa y Justicia 14.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
42.2%
15.6%
42.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
41.7%
15.8%
42.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
River Plate has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+22.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in River Plate's performance.
Defensa y Justicia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-28.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Defensa y Justicia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate than the current prediction. (-23.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with River Plate that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensa y Justicia than the current prediction. (+28.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Defensa y Justicia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
66.7%
20%
13.3%
River Plate - Defensa y Justicia Predictions
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. River Plate will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Defensa y Justicia will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%). Confidence interval (95%) for River Plate: 42.8% – 90.6%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Armani F. (G) 15. Herrera Mansilla Barrios M. A. 2. Rojas R. 14. Gonzalez L. 30. Gomez E. 11. de la Cruz N. 29. Aliendro R. 8. Palavecino A. 21. Barco E. 18. Beltran L. 36. Solari P.
22. Unsain E. (G) 32. Sant'Anna A. 4. Tripichio N. 2. Malatini J. 25. Cardona T. 3. Soto A. 27. Solari S. 5. Gutierrez K. 10. Bogarin R. 17. Alanis G. 29. Fernandez N.
Substitutes
35. Alfonso F. 20. Casco M. 33. Centurion E. (G) 19. Echeverri C. 22. Kranevitter M. 4. Maidana J. 9. Miguel Borja 10. Nacho Fernandez 26. Paradela J. 25. Rondon S. 31. Simon S. 7. Suarez M.
19. Barbona D. 16. Benitez A. 23. Bologna E. (G) 26. Caceres D. 30. Castellani G. 6. Colombo N. 18. Miritello J. B. 21. Ramos S. 9. Rios A. 11. Togni G. 20. Versaci F.
Coaches
Demichelis M.
Vaccari J.
Preview
The great teams are gonna meet at this game. The most expected match between two teams from the very top of the group (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
River Plate has the most likely position - 1 (85.01%), project points - 59, currently - 41, a good chance of win league (85%).
Defensa y Justicia has the most likely position - 6 (14.17%), project points - 42, currently - 30, a very small chance of win league (<1%).
This event has quality48, importance41, match rating44. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
One and the other team get a very uncertain game.
In this match River Plate is absolute favorite.
There will not play in River Plate: Diaz E. H.
(Injury)
Lopez E.
(Injury)
Martinez D.
(Injury)
Zuculini B.
(Injury)
There will not play in Defensa y Justicia: Escalante L. T.
(Red Card)
Last 4 head-to-head matches River Plate won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-4.
Including matches at home between the teams River Plate won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.
Bosnia-and-herzegovina
Croatia
Portugal
Watch
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Miguel Borja 
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