Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 10

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Parque Federico Omar Saroldi (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	River Plate Montevideo		Plaza Colonia

	1	X	2
	3.10	2.90	2.15
	2.88	2.92	2.4
	2.92	2.88	2.48
	2.94	3.01	2.49	Watch
	2.85	2.8	2.4
	2.87	2.98	2.4	Watch
	3.15	2.85	2.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.9)	2.91 ↓ (3.23)	2.36 (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

River Plate Montevideo
30.6%

Draw
31.1%

Plaza Colonia
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

28.7%

39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

28.8%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Plaza Colonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Plaza Colonia than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	40%	60%

River Plate Montevideo - Plaza Colonia Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Plaza Colonia will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Vergara H. ⚽,
30', 1 - 1, ⚽,
39', 2 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', 2 - 2, ⚽,
66', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 19:18. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, River Plate won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 1.2:0.8).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Plaza Colonia	21	9	5	7	26:21	5	32
5	River Plate	21	8	6	7	31:26	5	30

Last Results with these Odds

River Plate Montevideo - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 31.98%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Plaza Colonia - the odds 2.36 are the expected chance of winning is 39.3%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
04.07.26	Oriental de La Paz - River Plate Montevideo	1:2 ✺
28.06.26	River Plate Montevideo - La Luz	0:0 ✺
20.06.26	Colón Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	2:1 ✺
14.06.26	River Plate Montevideo - Cerrito	6:4 ✺
06.06.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WTLWL
- Plaza Colonia
Uruguayan Segunda Division
04.07.26	Plaza Colonia - La Luz	1:0 ✺
28.06.26	Cerrito - Plaza Colonia	1:0 ✺
20.06.26	Plaza Colonia - Atenas de San Carlos	1:2 ✺
14.06.26	Paysandú - Plaza Colonia	1:2 ✺
05.06.26	Plaza Colonia - Huracán Paso de la Arena	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
28.03.26	Plaza Colonia - River Plate Montevideo	3:0
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.09.25	Plaza Colonia - River Plate Montevideo	1:1
19.06.25	Plaza Colonia - River Plate Montevideo	0:0
29.03.25	River Plate Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:2
26.08.23	Plaza Colonia - River Plate Montevideo	0:1
11.02.23	River Plate Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	2:0
06.08.22	River Plate Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	2:0

Upcoming Matches