Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 16

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Egao Kenko Stadium (Kumamoto)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Roasso Kumamoto		Ryūkyū

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.8	3.2	4
	1.82	3.2	3.95	Watch
	1.88	3.33	4.39
	1.95	3.36	3.87	Watch
	1.7	3.4	4.2
	1.79	3.49	4.44	Watch
	1.75	3.5	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.75)	3.35 ↓ (3.5)	4.18 ↓ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roasso Kumamoto
50.7%

Draw
27.4%

Ryūkyū
22%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.7%

26.3%

21%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

25.5%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roasso Kumamoto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Ryūkyū has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roasso Kumamoto than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ryūkyū than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Roasso Kumamoto - Ryūkyū Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Kumamoto will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sato S. (G) 4. Yakushida R. 5. Kobayashi K. 6. Iwashita W. 41. Omoto Y. 8. Kamimura S. 27. Negishi K. 39. Aoki S. 10. Katori Y. 7. Fujii K. 11. Bae Jeong-Min	1. Sato H. (G) 14. Suzuki J. 3. Kikuchi S. 22. Kamiya K. 15. Araki R. 11. Ishiura T. 8. Horiuchi H. 17. Kato Y. 23. Sota K. 9. Asakawa H. 39. Ihara A.
Substitutes
18. Handai M. 13. Iihoshi A. 14. Ishihara O. 22. Matsuda E. 15. Mishima S. 17. Nagai S. 25. Nasu K. 24. Ri T. 23. Sato Y. (G)	27. Funabashi Y. 16. Ihori K. 46. Ikeda R. 26. Jennings C. 50. Kawashima K. (G) 7. Motegi S. 89. Takagi D. 28. Tsuha J. 18. Ueno Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', Kikuchi S. 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Ihara A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Bae Jeong-Min ↓, Handai M. ↑,
57', Katori Y. ↓, Ishihara O. ↑,
57', Kobayashi K. ↓, Ri T. ↑,
68', Kamiya K. ↓, Funabashi Y. ↑,
68', Asakawa H. ↓, Ueno Y. ↑,
68', Ihara A. ↓, Ihori K. ↑,
72', Funabashi Y. 🟨,
81', Fujii K. ↓, Nagai S. ↑,
87', Omoto Y. ↓, Nasu K. ↑,
90+2', Sota K. ↓, Takagi D. ↑,
90+3', Ishiura T. ↓, Ikeda R. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).

Kumamoto is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ryūkyū is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Kumamoto is a strong favorite.

We predict that Kumamoto will win today's game, with odds of 1.77.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Kumamoto won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Kumamoto won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roasso Kumamoto
Japan J2 J3 League
06.05.26	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Roasso Kumamoto	1:2 ✺
03.05.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Reilac Shiga	2:0 ✺
29.04.26	Oita Trinita - Roasso Kumamoto	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Gainare Tottori - Roasso Kumamoto	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Sagan Tosu	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WWWWL
- FC Ryūkyū
Japan J2 J3 League
06.05.26	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Ryūkyū	1:0 ✺
03.05.26	Ryūkyū - Kagoshima United	1:2 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Renofa Yamaguchi - Ryūkyū	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Ryūkyū - Oita Trinita	1:0 penalties ✺
18.04.26	Ryūkyū - Giravanz Kitakyushu	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
04.04.26	Ryūkyū - Roasso Kumamoto	0:1
Japan Emperors Cup
21.06.23	Roasso Kumamoto - Ryūkyū	3:2 penalties
Japan J2 League
30.07.22	Ryūkyū - Roasso Kumamoto	2:0
08.05.22	Roasso Kumamoto - Ryūkyū	0:2

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