Match Info

Date: 22 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Spotland Stadium (Rochdale)

Referee: Edwards M. (Eng)


	Rochdale		AFC Wimbledon

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	3.6
	2	3.3	3.6
	2.1	3.3	3.55
	2.06	3.3	3.45
	2.13	3.45	3.65
	2.05	3.25	3.6
	2.1	3.5	3.65	Watch
	2.01	3.25	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.32)	3.34 ↑ (3.15)	3.58 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rochdale
45.5%

Draw
28.2%

AFC Wimbledon
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

29.9%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

29.5%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rochdale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

AFC Wimbledon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AFC Wimbledon than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	25%	37.5%

Rochdale - AFC Wimbledon Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Rochdale will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Wimbledon will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rochdale: 4% – 71%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 21 and 17).

Rochdale has the most likely position - 21 (8.53%), has project points - 51, has currently - 11, has a small chance of relegated (14%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (3%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Wimbledon has the most likely position - 21 (8.29%), has project points - 52, has currently - 12, has a small chance of relegated (13%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (4%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has very small quality 8, small importance 24, small match rating 16. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rochdale won 0.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Wimbledon could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Rochdale will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Rochdale won 2 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 18-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Rochdale won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rochdale AFC
English EFL Trophy
18.10.22	Rochdale - Salford City	2:3 penalties ✺
English League Two
15.10.22	Rochdale - Barrow	2:1 ✺
08.10.22	Newport County - Rochdale	0:1 ✺
01.10.22	Rochdale - Doncaster Rovers	1:2 ✺
24.09.22	Colchester United - Rochdale	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 LWWLW
- AFC Wimbledon
English League Two
15.10.22	AFC Wimbledon - Sutton United	0:1 ✺
08.10.22	Walsall - AFC Wimbledon	3:1 ✺
01.10.22	AFC Wimbledon - Colchester United	2:1 ✺
24.09.22	Bradford City - AFC Wimbledon	2:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
20.09.22	AFC Wimbledon - Crawley Town	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
27.04.21	AFC Wimbledon - Rochdale	3:3
21.11.20	Rochdale - AFC Wimbledon	0:1
05.10.19	AFC Wimbledon - Rochdale	3:2
19.02.19	Rochdale - AFC Wimbledon	3:4
08.12.18	AFC Wimbledon - Rochdale	1:1
17.03.18	Rochdale - AFC Wimbledon	1:1
30.09.17	AFC Wimbledon - Rochdale	0:0

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