Match Info

League Two - Round 2

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Spotland Stadium (Rochdale)

Referee: Kennard-Kettle Z. (Eng)


	Rochdale		Crawley Town

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.60	4.33	Watch
	1.87	3.50	3.90
	1.89	3.40	3.60
	1.87	3.85	4.31
	1.91	3.65	3.66	Watch
	1.78	3.80	4.25
	1.77	3.63	4.37	Watch
	1.85	3.55	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (1.92)	3.62 ↑ (3.55)	4.05 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rochdale
51.1%

Draw
25.8%

Crawley Town
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

26.2%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

22%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rochdale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Crawley Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rochdale that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Crawley Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Rochdale - Crawley Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Rochdale will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Crawley will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ramming N. (G) 26. Sherring S. 6. Ebanks-Landell E. (C) 3. Wilson K. 22. Moss D. 8. Gilmour H. 14. Francis E. 4. East R. 39. Brown D. 13. Adebayo-Rowling T. 9. Dieseruvwe E.	13. Michalski N. (G) 24. Odimayo A. 6. Farquharson P. 5. Barker C. 16. Russell J. 22. Adeyemo A. 20. Arthurs J. (C) 30. Jennings K. 17. Kamara O. 8. Watson L. 11. Aderoju O.
Substitutes
17. Adeeko B. 19. Hannant L. 40. Henderson I. 11. Silcott-Duberry Z. 18. Smith J. 21. Taylor K. 20. Waller S. (G)	4. Arganese-McDermott P. 14. Di Biase G. 31. Izquierdo J. (G) 25. Krasniqi K. 9. Orsi-Dadomo D. 12. Richards L. 28. Tinsdale N.
Coaches
Watson I.	Kazim-Richards C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Aderoju O. ⚽,
13', Farquharson P. 🟨,
28', Moss D. 🟨,
34', Wilson K. 🟨,
45+1', Sherring S. 🟨,
45+2', Kazim-Richards C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', Arthurs J. 🟨,
48', Russell J. 🟨,
54', 1 - 1, Ebanks-Landell E. ⚽, East R. (A),
63', Russell J. ↓, Richards L. ↑,
69', Watson L. 🟨,
69', Ramming N. 🟨,
72', 1 - 2, Watson L. (Penalty Awarded),
82', East R. ↓, Taylor K. ↑,
82', Francis E. ↓, Adeeko B. ↑,
87', Moss D. ↓, Silcott-Duberry Z. ↑,
87', Gilmour H. ↓, Henderson I. ↑,
89', Jennings K. ↓, Krasniqi K. ↑,
90+3', Aderoju O. ↓, Orsi-Dadomo D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rochdale won 1.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Rochdale could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Rochdale: Beckwith S. (Inactive) Bilongo B. (Red Card) Hayes C. (Inactive) Jenkins W. (Inactive) Maguire L. (Inactive) Pettit C. (Inactive) Smith J. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Crawley: Ebiowei M. (Red Card) Gordon K. (Red Card)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Rochdale won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Rochdale won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Rochdale: 0.83%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Rochdale	10	4	2	4	11:12	-1	14
24	Crawley	8	1	2	5	8:15	-7	5

Last Results with these Odds

Rochdale - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 48.38%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Crawley Town - the odds 3.65 are the expected chance of winning is 25.45%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rochdale AFC
English League Two
15.08.26	Newport County - Rochdale	3:0 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.26	Bradford City - Rochdale	2:0 ✺
01.08.26	Tranmere Rovers - Rochdale	2:3 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
28.07.26	Rochdale - Halifax Town	2:3 ✺
25.07.26	Rochdale - Farnham Town	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLT
- Crawley Town
English League Two
15.08.26	Crawley Town - Crewe Alexandra	0:1 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.26	Watford - Crawley Town	1:0 ✺
03.08.26	York City - Crawley Town	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
31.07.26	Crawley Town - Reading	0:1 ✺
28.07.26	Oxford United - Crawley Town	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
25.03.23	Crawley Town - Rochdale	2:0
27.08.22	Rochdale - Crawley Town	1:1
26.03.22	Crawley Town - Rochdale	1:0
09.10.21	Rochdale - Crawley Town	0:1
English League One
17.01.15	Rochdale - Crawley Town	4:1
06.09.14	Crawley Town - Rochdale	0:4

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