Match Info

Date: 18 October 2020, Sunday


	Roma		Benevento

	1	X	2
	1.36	5	8	Watch
	1.4	4.75	8
	1.38	4.9	8	Watch
	1.43	4.9	6.4
	1.41	5.04	8.52
	1.38	4.8	8.5	Watch
	1.43	5.25	8.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↑ (1.33)	4.95 ↓ (5.46)	8.05 ↓ (8.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 0.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roma
68.7%

Draw
19.4%

Benevento
11.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.7%

17.5%

10.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

10.2%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Benevento has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roma than the current prediction. (-27.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Roma that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benevento than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Benevento could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.3%	7.2%	14.5%

Roma - Benevento Predictions

Users Predictions: Roma will win (54 of 69 users predict this - 78.26%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.53% – 87.99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Limited number of spectators.

Roma has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of qualify for ucl (31%), has a very small chance of win league (5%).

Benevento has a chance of relegated (22%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Now both teams are in good shape.

Roma could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Roma have a series of guest games.

In this match Roma is indisputable favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Roma won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Roma won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Roma
Italian Serie A
03.10.20	Udinese - Roma	0:1 ✺
27.09.20	Roma - Juventus	2:2 ✺
19.09.20	Verona - Roma	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
12.09.20	Cagliari - Roma	2:2 ✺
09.09.20	Frosinone - Roma	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WTTTW
- Benevento Calcio
Italian Serie A
04.10.20	Benevento - Bologna	1:0 ✺
30.09.20	Benevento - Inter Milan	2:5 ✺
26.09.20	Sampdoria - Benevento	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
19.09.20	Lazio - Benevento	0:0 ✺
12.09.20	Benevento - Reggina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.7 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
06.09.18	Benevento - Roma	2:1
Italian Serie A
11.02.18	Roma - Benevento	5:2
20.09.17	Benevento - Roma	0:4

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