Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2024, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Gigante de Arroyito (Rosario) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Maza P. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Bosnia And Herzegovina	00:00	Arena Sport
Croatia	00:00	Arena Sport
Germany	00:00	Sport 1+
Netherlands	00:00	ESPN
Portugal	23:00	Sport TV
Serbia	00:00	Arena Sport


	Rosario Central		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	3.6	3	2.25	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.8
	3.5	3	2.25
	3.72	3	2.29
	3.72	3	2.29
	3.4	3	2.1	Watch
	3.68	2.98	2.25	Watch
	3.5	2.95	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.45 ↑ (2.44)	3 ↓ (3.22)	2.3 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rosario Central
27.4%

Draw
31.5%

Atlético Mineiro
41.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.2%

29%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

29.3%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rosario Central has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rosario Central's form might have worsened.

Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Mineiro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rosario Central than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rosario Central, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Mineiro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.9%	8.6%	84.5%

Rosario Central - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 56 users predict this event. Rosario will win (votes: 3 - 5.4%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 49 - 87.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético MG: 78.8% – 96.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Broun J. (G) 4. Martinez D. 15. Mallo Blanco F. 2. Quintana C. 3. Sandez A. 60. Gomez J. 45. Ortiz K. (C) 30. O'Connor T. 10. Malcorra I. 13. Jaminton Campaz 44. Modica A.	22. Everson (G) 26. Renzo Saravia 21. Battaglia R. 3. Bruno Fuchs 13. Guilherme Arana 6. Gustavo Scarpa 23. Franco A. 5. Otavio 15. Zaracho M. 7. Hulk (C) 10. Paulinho
Substitutes
48. Cervera T. 33. Coronel E. 29. Dupuy L. 17. Giaccone L. 24. Gimenez J. 8. Ibarra F. 6. Komar J. 18. Lo Celso F. 7. Lovera M. 16. Martinez M. 21. Rodriguez Armoa A. F. 20. Werner A. (G)	14. Alan Kardec 45. Alisson 42. Cadu 11. Eduardo Vargas 17. Igor Gomes 16. Igor Rabello 34. Jemerson 25. Mariano 31. Matheus Mendes (G) 30. Palacios Alzate B. 38. Pedrinho 47. Romulo
Coaches
Russo M.	Milito G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Martinez D. 🟨,
27', Renzo Saravia 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Paulinho 🟨,
65', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Alisson ↑,
65', Zaracho M. ↓, Igor Gomes ↑,
67', O'Connor T. ↓, Ibarra F. ↑,
68', Battaglia R. 🟨,
72', Hulk ↓, Eduardo Vargas ↑,
73', Martinez D. ↓, Coronel E. ↑,
74', Jaminton Campaz ↓, Lovera M. ↑,
74', Gomez J. ↓, Giaccone L. ↑,
78', Eduardo Vargas 🟨,
87', 0 - 1, Paulinho ⚽, Eduardo Vargas (A),
88', Modica A. ↓, Cervera T. ↑,
89', Paulinho ↓, Pedrinho ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Rosario is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Atlético MG in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Rosario could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Atlético MG will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Rosario won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rosario Central
Copa Libertadores
23.04.24	Caracas - Rosario Central	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
17.04.24	Rosario Central - Deportivo Riestra	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Rosario Central	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
07.04.24	River Plate - Rosario Central	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.04.24	Rosario Central - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TTLLW
- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.24	Fluminense - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
30.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Sport Recife	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.04.24	Cuiabá - Atlético Mineiro	0:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Peñarol de Montevideo	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Cruzeiro	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
10.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Rosario Central	2:1

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