Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 23 April 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Olímpico de la UCV (Caracas)

Referee: Vargas G. (Bol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Germany	Sport 1+


	Caracas		Rosario Central

	1	X	2
				Watch
	5	3.4	1.73
	4.95	3.5	1.75	Watch
	5.33	3.5	1.78
	5.33	3.5	1.76
	4.75	3.4	1.67	Watch
	5.44	3.42	1.72	Watch
	4.8	3.45	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.09 ↑ (3.88)	3.45 ↑ (3.42)	1.73 ↓ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caracas
18.5%

Draw
27.2%

Rosario Central
54.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.1%

27.4%

48.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

24.3%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caracas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Caracas's form might have worsened.

Rosario Central has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rosario Central's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caracas than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Caracas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rosario Central than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rosario Central, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	6.2%	81.2%

Caracas - Rosario Central Predictions

Users Predictions: Rosario Central will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Farinez W. (C) 2. La Mantia F. 4. Rodriguez B. 25. Tamayo B. 39. Mollica P. 27. Edet B. 8. Ortega B. 29. Rivas R. 14. Echenique E. 7. Perez D. 11. Pernia E.	1. Broun J. (C) 4. Martinez D. 15. Mallo Blanco F. 2. Quintana C. 3. Sandez A. 45. Ortiz K. 17. Giaccone L. 30. O'Connor T. 10. Malcorra I. 13. Jaminton Campaz 48. Cervera T.
Substitutes
16. Figueroa R. 15. Gonzalez K. 23. Hernandez W. (G) 24. Jimenez N. 19. Manrique R. 9. Mena Y. 28. Padilla D. 6. Quijada R. 17. Reinoso L. 18. Rivas A. 20. Salazar L. 22. Sulbaran M.	23. Bogado G. 33. Coronel E. 29. Dupuy L. 24. Gimenez J. 60. Gomez J. 8. Ibarra F. 6. Komar J. 18. Lo Celso F. 16. Martinez M. 44. Modica A. 21. Rodriguez Armoa A. F. 20. Werner A. (G)
Coaches
Melendez H.	Russo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Rivas R. 🟨,
25', 1 - 0, Pernia E. ⚽, Perez D. (A),
34', Perez D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Cervera T. ↓, Modica A. ↑,
57', Giaccone L. ↓, Dupuy L. ↑,
62', O'Connor T. ↓, Gomez J. ↑,
64', Pernia E. ↓, Jimenez N. ↑,
67', 1 - 1, Modica A. ⚽, Gomez J. (A),
70', Mallo Blanco F. ↓, Komar J. ↑,
73', Rivas R. ↓, Manrique R. ↑,
73', Perez D. ↓, Mena Y. ↑,
79', Dupuy L. 🟨,
79', Jimenez N. 🟨,
90', Echenique E. ↓, Figueroa R. ↑,
90+3', Modica A. 🟨,

Preview

The competitors look crappy now.

Rosario could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Rosario is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caracas FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
19.04.24	Carabobo - Caracas	1:0 ✺
14.04.24	Caracas - Universidad Central	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Caracas	5:0 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
07.04.24	Metropolitanos - Caracas	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.04.24	Caracas - Atlético Mineiro	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LTLTL
- Rosario Central
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
17.04.24	Rosario Central - Deportivo Riestra	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Rosario Central	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
07.04.24	River Plate - Rosario Central	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.04.24	Rosario Central - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
28.03.24	Rosario Central - Barracas Central	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TLLWL

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