Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 4

Date: 27 April 2024, Saturday

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá)

Referee: Pereira Sampiao S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Cuiabá		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	3.6	3	2.3
	3.5	3	2.37
	3.75	3.25	2.05	Watch
	3.73	3	2.36
	3.73	2.92	2.36
	3.75	3.2	2
	3.55	3.08	2.25	Watch
	3.6	3	2.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.65 ↑ (3.53)	3.06 ↓ (3.2)	2.24 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
26.1%

Draw
31.2%

Atlético Mineiro
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.9%

29.6%

43.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

29.2%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	27.3%	72.7%

Cuiabá - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético MG: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Walter (C) 4. Marllon 34. Bruno Alves 33. Alan Empereur 2. Matheus Alexandre 27. Denilson Alves 88. Fernando Sobral 20. Rikelme 25. Clayson 22. Derik Lacerda 9. Pitta I.	22. Everson (G) 26. Renzo Saravia 3. Bruno Fuchs 4. Lemos M. 6. Gustavo Scarpa 5. Otavio (C) 23. Franco A. 15. Zaracho M. 45. Alisson 10. Paulinho 11. Eduardo Vargas
Substitutes
3. Allyson 97. Andre Luis 11. Eliel 44. Gabriel 19. Gimenez L. 8. Guilherme Madruga 7. Jonathan Cafu 18. Lucas Fernandes 14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 21. Railan 23. Ramon 12. Rhyan (G)	14. Alan Kardec 21. Battaglia R. 42. Cadu 13. Guilherme Arana 17. Igor Gomes 16. Igor Rabello 41. Isaac 34. Jemerson 35. Mariano 31. Matheus Mendes (G) 30. Palacios Alzate B. 38. Pedrinho
Coaches
Iubel L. F.	Milito G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', Lemos M. 🟨,
28', 0 - 1, Eduardo Vargas ⚽, Paulinho (A),
37', Franco A. 🟨,
45+8', Denilson Alves 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Pitta I. ↓, Gimenez L. ↑,
46', Clayson ↓, Eliel ↑,
46', Lemos M. ↓, Igor Rabello ↑,
56', Fernando Sobral ↓, Lucas Fernandes ↑,
59', Matheus Alexandre 🟨,
61', 0 - 2, Gustavo Scarpa ⚽,
64', Alan Empereur 🟨,
66', Franco A. ↓, Pedrinho ↑,
66', Zaracho M. ↓, Igor Gomes ↑,
67', Denilson Alves ↓, Guilherme Madruga ↑,
70', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Guilherme Arana ↑,
77', Marllon 🟨,
78', 0 - 3, Paulinho (Pen),
79', Paulinho ↓, Alan Kardec ↑,
81', Bruno Fuchs 🟨,
82', Derik Lacerda ↓, Andre Luis ↑,
86', Bruno Fuchs 🟨,
88', Igor Gomes 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cuiabá won 0.

Cuiabá is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Atlético MG is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Cuiabá have a series of guest games.

Recently Atlético MG have a series of home games.

Atlético MG will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Cuiabá: Deyverson (Injury) Filipe Augusto (Injury) Max (Injury) Ramon (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Cuiabá won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 2-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Cuiabá won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.24	Grêmio - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
17.04.24	Vila Nova - Cuiabá	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
14.04.24	Athletico Paranaense - Cuiabá	4:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
11.04.24	Metropolitanos - Cuiabá	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TLLLW
- Atlético Mineiro
Copa Libertadores
23.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Peñarol de Montevideo	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Cruzeiro	3:0 ✺
17.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Criciúma	1:1 ✺
14.04.24	Corinthians - Atlético Mineiro	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Rosario Central	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
23.09.23	Atlético Mineiro - Cuiabá	1:0
10.05.23	Cuiabá - Atlético Mineiro	0:4
10.11.22	Atlético Mineiro - Cuiabá	3:0
21.07.22	Cuiabá - Atlético Mineiro	1:1
24.10.21	Atlético Mineiro - Cuiabá	2:1
04.07.21	Cuiabá - Atlético Mineiro	0:1

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