Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 July 2024, Thursday

Location: Štadión pod Čebraťom (Ružomberok)

Referee: Athanassiou K. (Cyp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Sport+
Slovakia	STVR Sport


	Ružomberok		Tobol Kostanay

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.9	2.5	Watch
	2.8	3.1	2.6
	2.85	3	2.6	Watch
	3	3.05	2.62
	2.88	3	2.6	Watch
	2.62	3	2.5
	2.85	3.16	2.58	Watch
	2.85	3.05	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.4)	3.03 ↓ (3.5)	2.58 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ružomberok
33%

Draw
30.8%

Tobol Kostanay
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

26.5%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

25.9%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ružomberok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ružomberok's form might have worsened.

Tobol Kostanay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ružomberok than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	30.3%	36.4%

Ružomberok - Tobol Kostanay Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Ružomberok will win (votes: 9 - 30%). Tobol will win (votes: 12 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tobol: 22.5% – 57.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Fruhwald T. (G) 16. Kostl D. 22. Gabriel S. 32. Maly M. 28. Selecky A. 6. Mudry T. 11. Lavrincik S. 17. Tucny A. 30. Chrien M. (C) 4. Luteran O. 14. Hladik J.	1. Pokatilov S. (G) 15. Gabaraev A. 5. Ndiaye P. 3. Asrankulov R. (C) 7. Zhumashev Z. 28. Skakhov Y. 8. El Messaoudi A. 6. Essien E. 11. Chesnokov I. 10. Ivanovic I. 77. Henen D.
Substitutes
18. Boda M. 5. Bozik R. 20. Chobot M. 8. Domonkos K. 15. Gerec S. 19. Gomola M. 26. Kelemen M. 23. Madlenak M. 3. Maslo J. 35. Sokol B. (G) 1. Tapaj D. (G)	4. Abdulla E. 25. Bozhko R. 12. Busurmanov S. (G) 20. Costa R. 51. Galym B. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 55. Miladinovic I. 13. Mosiashvili T. 16. Tapalov E. 21. Tsonev R. 19. Valiullin R.
Coaches
Smetana O.	Zhumaskaliev N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 2)
9', 0 - 1, Ivanovic I. ⚽, Chesnokov I. (A),
11', 1 - 1, Gabriel S. ⚽, Hladik J. (A),
33', Chesnokov I. 🟨,
40', 2 - 1, Selecky A. ⚽, Hladik J. (A),
45', 2 - 2, Henen D. ⚽, Ivanovic I. (A),
45+3', 3 - 2, Maly M. ⚽, Lavrincik S. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Zhumashev Z. ↓, Miladinovic I. ↑,
47', Gabaraev A. 🟨,
56', Gabriel S. 🟨,
58', Tucny A. ↓, Gerec S. ↑,
64', Skakhov Y. 🟨,
66', Selecky A. 🟨,
66', Henen D. ↓, Tapalov E. ↑,
74', Hladik J. ↓, Chobot M. ↑,
74', Selecky A. ↓, Madlenak M. ↑,
76', Skakhov Y. ↓, Costa R. ↑,
76', Asrankulov R. ↓, Mosiashvili T. ↑,
77', 4 - 2, Madlenak M. ⚽,
87', Ndiaye P. 🟨,
88', 5 - 2, Maly M. ⚽, Lavrincik S. (A),
90', Chrien M. ↓, Kelemen M. ↑,
90', Miladinovic I. 🟨,
90+2', Luteran O. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Ružomberok is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Tobol is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Tobol could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Ružomberok have a series of guest games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MFK Ružomberok
Club Friendly
03.07.24	Ružomberok - Zlín	2:2 ✺
29.06.24	Tatran Liptovský Mikuláš - Ružomberok	3:1 ✺
25.06.24	Rapid Bucureşti - Ružomberok	1:1 ✺
22.06.24	Domžale - Ružomberok	2:2 ✺
19.06.24	Egnatia Rrogozhinë - Ružomberok	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TLTTT
- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh League Cup
06.07.24	Tobol Kostanay - Aktobe	2:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
30.06.24	Aktobe - Tobol Kostanay	3:4 ✺
23.06.24	Atyrau - Tobol Kostanay	0:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
19.06.24	Atyrau - Tobol Kostanay	4:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
15.06.24	Tobol Kostanay - Kairat	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 WWTLW

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