Match Info

J3 League - Round 11

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Okinawa Athletic Park Stadium (Okinawa) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Japan	18:00	DAZN Japan


	Ryūkyū		Tochigi

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.20	2.40
	2.62	3.05	2.42	Watch
	2.87	3.35	2.56
	2.58	3.37	2.6	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.5
	2.65	3.43	2.5	Watch
	2.65	3.15	2.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↓ (2.8)	3.21 ↑ (3.15)	2.49 ↑ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ryūkyū
34.4%

Draw
28.7%

Tochigi
36.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.1%

28.5%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

28.4%

39.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ryūkyū has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Tochigi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ryūkyū than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tochigi than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Ryūkyū - Tochigi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sato H. (G) 14. Suzuki J. (C) 27. Funabashi Y. 4. Fujiharu H. 24. Kawaguchi N. 32. Takayanagi F. 13. Iwamoto S. 17. Kato Y. 23. Sota K. 11. Ishiura T. 19. Teruuchi T.	41. Tashiro R. (G) 88. Uchida K. 37. Kimura Y. 3. Higashi R. 14. Suzuki S. 17. Sugimori K. 81. Nakano K. 11. Aoshima T. (C) 7. Osako R. 10. Igarashi T. 20. Suzuki W. I.
Substitutes
9. Asakawa H. 35. Chiba K. 8. Horiuchi H. 16. Ihori K. 46. Ikeda R. 55. Koki Y. 33. Miyamoto R. (G) 89. Takagi D. 3. Yoshida H.	1. Kawata S. (G) 18. Matsushita Y. 16. Myogan T. 77. Nakamura J. 13. Osone K. 26. Tabata T. 25. Yamaguchi T. 5. Yanagi Y. 29. Yano K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Fujiharu H. ↓, Horiuchi H. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
64', Suzuki W. I. ↓, Nakamura J. ↑,
64', Nakano K. ↓, Yamaguchi T. ↑,
67', 1 - 0, Teruuchi T. ⚽, Iwamoto S. (A),
73', Igarashi T. ↓, Matsushita Y. ↑,
73', Aoshima T. ↓, Myogan T. ↑,
78', Teruuchi T. ↓, Asakawa H. ↑,
78', Iwamoto S. ↓, Ikeda R. ↑,
80', Uchida K. ↓, Yano K. ↑,
82', Ikeda R. 🟨,
87', Sota K. ↓, Ihori K. ↑,
87', Ishiura T. ↓, Koki Y. ↑,
90+5', Yano K. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 14th and 15th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ryūkyū won 3.

Both teams have struggled for positive results in recent outings.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Ryūkyū has recorded 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:14 (averaging 1.8:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ryūkyū against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 12:5 goals (averaging 2.4:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Ryukyu	13	6	2	5	16:15	1	20
16	Tochigi SC	13	3	5	5	12:16	-4	14

Last Results with these Odds

Ryūkyū - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 32.08%, but this team recently wins 15% of matches with these odds.

Tochigi - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 39.4%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ryūkyū
Japan J3 League
10.10.26	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Ryūkyū	2:1 ✺
03.10.26	Ryūkyū - Zweigen Kanazawa	0:2 ✺
26.09.26	Ryūkyū - Ehime	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Reilac Shiga - Ryūkyū	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Ryūkyū - Kamatamare Sanuki	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLTLW
- Tochigi SC
Japan J3 League
11.10.26	Tochigi - Renofa Yamaguchi	0:1 ✺
04.10.26	Kamatamare Sanuki - Tochigi	0:0 ✺
26.09.26	Tochigi - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Kagoshima United - Tochigi	3:1 ✺
13.09.26	Nagano Parceiro - Tochigi	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
20.09.25	Tochigi - Ryūkyū	4:1
23.03.25	Ryūkyū - Tochigi	2:1
Japan J2 League
25.09.22	Tochigi - Ryūkyū	0:0
14.05.22	Ryūkyū - Tochigi	1:0
04.12.21	Tochigi - Ryūkyū	1:2
15.05.21	Ryūkyū - Tochigi	4:2
21.10.20	Tochigi - Ryūkyū	4:1

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