Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 4

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Primeiro de Maio (Sao Bernardo)

Referee: Ferreira Y. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	São Bernardo		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	2.65	2.85	2.4
	2.82	3.05	2.52
	2.87	3.16	2.68
	2.91	3.11	2.51	Watch
	2.75	2.9	2.5
	2.77	3.05	2.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↓ (3.09)	3.02 ↓ (3.11)	2.53 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Bernardo
33%

Draw
30.5%

Fortaleza
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.2%

30%

39.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.1%

28.9%

41.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

São Bernardo - Fortaleza Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alex Alves (G) 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 5. Matheus Salustiano 97. Augusto 6. Para 26. Dudu Miraima 8. Foguinho (C) 17. Romisson 11. Pedro Vitor 89. Daniel Amorim 29. Pedrinho	25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 2. Britez E. (C) 33. Kaua Rocha 3. Lucas Gazal 22. Mailton 37. Ryan 5. Pierre 18. Fuentes G. 7. Pochettino T. 32. Luiz Fernando 19. Lucas Emanoel
Substitutes
27. Echapora 10. Fabricio Daniel 25. Gonzaga W. 3. Helder Maciel 21. Hugo Sanches 42. Hyoran 35. Jemerson 30. Junior Urso 7. Lucas Rian 77. Luizao 40. Matheus Nogueira (G) 22. Pablo Dyego	12. Brenno (G) 4. Luan Freitas 38. Lucca Prior 15. Magrao (G) 13. Mauricio Junior 9. Miritello J. B. 77. Paulo Baya 29. Rodrigo 75. Rodriguinho 8. Ronald 11. Vitinho 31. Welliton
Coaches
Ricardo Catala	Thiago Carpini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Para 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Matheus Salustiano ↓, Helder Maciel ↑,
52', Fuentes G. 🟨,
59', Lucas Emanoel ↓, Miritello J. B. ↑,
69', Fuentes G. ↓, Mauricio Junior ↑,
73', Pierre 🟨,
76', Dudu Miraima ↓, Hyoran ↑,
76', Pedrinho ↓, Echapora ↑,
76', Foguinho ↓, Luizao ↑,
83', Ryan ↓, Ronald ↑,
83', Pochettino T. ↓, Lucca Prior ↑,
83', Luiz Fernando ↓, Paulo Baya ↑,
84', Britez E. 🟨,
87', 0 - 1, Miritello J. B. ⚽,
89', Daniel Amorim ↓, Fabricio Daniel ↑,

Preview

Recent form of São Bernardo has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fortaleza is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

São Bernardo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in São Bernardo: Mario Sergio (Inactive) Rodrigo Andrade (Injury)

There will not play in Fortaleza: Bruninho (Inactive) Cardona T. (Muscle Injury) Joao Ricardo (Inactive)

There are questionable in São Bernardo: Foguinho (Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37:27	10	56
12	Sao Bernardo	32	12	9	11	44:34	10	45

Last Results with these Odds

São Bernardo - the odds 3.09 are the expected chance of winning is 30.23%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Fortaleza - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 39.74%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
09.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
05.04.26	Botafogo SP - São Bernardo	1:2 ✺
02.04.26	São Bernardo - Operário Ferroviario	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
29.03.26	São Bernardo - Sampaio Corrêa FE	2:2 ✺
25.03.26	Chapecoense - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLTL
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.04.26	Ceará - Fortaleza	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
04.04.26	Fortaleza - Juventude	2:1 ✺
31.03.26	Fortaleza - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
28.03.26	Fortaleza - Imperatriz de Desportos	2:1 ✺
24.03.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWTWW

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